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中国防痨杂志 ›› 2026, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (1): 64-72.doi: 10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20250330

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

2005—2023年山东省肺结核流行趋势分析

上官士超1, 王珂2(), 王连森1(), 段曦1, 黄鹏翔1, 姚明晓1, 娄蕾1   

  1. 1山东省疾病预防控制中心结核病防制所,济南250014
    2山东大学附属公共卫生临床中心/山东省公共卫生临床中心公共卫生科,济南250013
  • 收稿日期:2025-08-12 出版日期:2026-01-10 发布日期:2025-12-31
  • 通信作者: 王珂,王连森 E-mail:809913079@qq.com;wlsen@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    山东省医药卫生科技项目(202412051224)

The epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2023

Shangguan Shichao1, Wang Ke2(), Wang Liansen1(), Duan Xi1, Huang Pengxiang1, Yao Mingxiao1, Lou Lei1   

  1. 1Department of Tuberculosis Prevention and Control, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ji’nan 250014, China
    2Department of Public Health, Shandong University Affiliated Clinical Center for Public Health/Shandong Provincial Clinical Center for Public Health, Ji’nan 250013, China
  • Received:2025-08-12 Online:2026-01-10 Published:2025-12-31
  • Contact: Wang Ke,Wang Liansen E-mail:809913079@qq.com;wlsen@163.com
  • Supported by:
    Shandong Provincial Medical and Health Science and Technology Project(202412051224)

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摘要：

目的: 系统性描述和分析2005—2023年山东省肺结核报告发病情况和流行趋势,为制订和完善区域化肺结核防治措施提供参考。方法: 通过“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”中的“传染病监测系统”收集2005—2023年山东省的肺结核疫情数据。人口资料来源于山东省统计年鉴。以国家统计局发布的2020年第七次全国人口普查的全国人口数作为标准人口来计算年龄别标化报告发病率。应用Joinpoint回归模型、热力图对肺结核流行趋势进行分析。结果: 2005—2023年山东省共报告肺结核患者632763例,平均报告发病率为34.06/10万。总人群报告发病率从2005年(43014例,46.51/10万)到2023年(23027例,22.75/10万)下降了51.09%。平均报告发病率位居前列的有聊城市(2693例,46.11/10万)、临沂市(4191例,40.57/10万)、菏泽市(3393例,40.08/10万)、德州市(2129例,37.93/10万)、泰安市(2029例,36.84/10万)、济南市(2646例,35.15/10万);潍坊市(2214例,24.12/10万)、东营市(576例,27.47/10万)、青岛市(2608例,28.51/10万)平均报告发病率较低。2005—2023年山东省肺结核标化报告发病率总体呈下降趋势[平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)=-4.25, 95%CI:-5.15~-3.33, t=-8.936, P<0.001];滨州市(AAPC=-6.45, 95%CI:-9.58~-3.22, t=-3.843, P<0.001)、泰安市(AAPC=-6.20, 95%CI:-8.41~-3.93, t=-5.247, P<0.001)、济南市(AAPC=-5.82, 95%CI:-6.83~-4.80, t=-10.867, P<0.001)、东营市(AAPC=-5.74, 95%CI:-6.58~-4.89, t=-13.893, P<0.001)、德州市(AAPC=-5.66, 95%CI:-6.31~-5.01, t=-17.788, P<0.001)、临沂市(AAPC=-5.33, 95%CI:-7.24~-3.39, t=-5.238, P<0.001)下降最快;烟台市(AAPC=-1.63, 95%CI:-2.73~-0.52, t=-2.878, P=0.004)、青岛市(AAPC=-1.96, 95%CI:-2.52~-1.40, t=-7.312, P<0.001)、威海市(AAPC=-2.55, 95%CI:-3.87~-1.20, t=-3.688, P<0.001)、潍坊市(AAPC=-3.61, 95%CI:-4.16~-3.07, t=-13.732, P<0.001)、菏泽市(AAPC=-4.22, 95%CI:-5.48~-2.94, t=-6.357, P<0.001)下降幅度小于山东省平均水平。结论: 2005—2023年山东省肺结核报告发病率不断下降,反映了各个时期卓有成效的结核病防治策略实施的成果。山东省肺结核疫情存在明显的地区差异,应深入分析影响因素,根据不同地区特点制定相应的防控政策。

关键词: 结核, 肺, 发病率, 传染病控制

Abstract:

Objective: To systematically describe and analyze the reported incidence and epidemic trends of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2023, thereby providing a scientific basis for the formulation and enhancement of regional TB prevention and control strategies. Methods: The epidemic data of PTB in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2023 were collected from the Infectious Disease Surveillance System of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Population data were obtained from Shandong Statistical Yearbook. The national population distribution released by the National Bureau of Statistics based on the Seventh National Population Census in 2020 was adopted as the standard population for calculating the age-standardized reported incidence rate. Joinpoint regression and heat map were employed to analyze the epidemic trends of PTB. Results: From 2005 to 2023, a total of 632763 PTB cases were reported in Shandong Province, the average reported incidence rate was 34.06/100000. The overall reported incidence rate decreased by 51.09% from 2005 (43014 cases, 46.51/100000) to 2023 (23027 cases, 22.75/100000). The top six regions reporting the number of cases were Liaocheng (2693 cases, 46.11/100000), Linyi (4191 cases, 40.57/100000), Heze (3393 cases, 40.08/100000), Dezhou (2129 cases, 37.93/100000), Tai’an (2029 cases, 36.84/100000) and Ji’nan (2646 cases, 35.15/100000). Weifang (2214 cases, 24.12/100000), Dongying (576 cases, 27.47/100000) and Qingdao (2608 cases, 28.51/100000) exhibited relatively lower average reported incidence rate. From 2005 to 2023, the standardized reported incidence rate in Shandong Province demonstrated an overall downward trend (AAPC=-4.25, 95%CI: -5.15--3.33, t=-8.936, P<0.001). Among the cities, Binzhou (AAPC=-6.45, 95%CI: -9.58--3.22, t=-3.843, P<0.001), Tai’an (AAPC=-6.20, 95%CI: -8.41--3.93, t=-5.247, P<0.001), Jinan (AAPC=-5.82, 95%CI: -6.83--4.80, t=-10.867, P<0.001), Dongying (AAPC=-5.74, 95%CI: -6.58--4.89, t=-13.893, P<0.001), Dezhou (AAPC=-5.66, 95%CI: -6.31--5.01, t=-17.788, P<0.001), Linyi (AAPC=-5.33, 95%CI: -7.24--3.39, t=-5.238, P<0.001) experienced the fastest decline, while the decline rates in Yantai (AAPC=-1.63, 95%CI: -2.73--0.52, t=-2.878, P=0.004), Qingdao (AAPC=-1.96, 95%CI: -2.52--1.40, t=-7.312, P<0.001), Weihai (AAPC=-2.55, 95%CI: -3.87--1.20, t=-3.688, P<0.001), Weifang (AAPC=-3.61, 95%CI: -4.16--3.07, t=-13.732, P<0.001), Heze (AAPC=-4.22, 95%CI: -5.48--2.94, t=-6.357, P<0.001) were lower than the average level of Shandong Province. Conclusion: Since 2005, the reported incidence of PTB in Shandong Province has shown a continuous downward trend, reflecting the success of the TB prevention and control strategies implemented during various periods. The TB epidemic situation exhibits significant regional disparities in Shandong Province. Therefore, it is essential to conduct an in-depth analysis of the influencing factors and develop targeted prevention and control policies tailored to the specific characteristics of each region.

Key words: Tuberculosis, pulmonary, Incidence, Communicable disease control

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