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中国防痨杂志 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (9): 942-947.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6621.2020.09.011

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

2009—2018年四川省0~14 岁儿童肺结核流行特征分析

苏茜, 夏勇, 逯嘉, 王丹霞, 何金戈()   

  1. 610041 成都,四川省疾病预防控制中心结核病预防控制所
  • 收稿日期:2020-06-11 出版日期:2020-09-10 发布日期:2020-09-18
  • 通信作者: 何金戈
  • 基金资助:

Analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 in Sichuan Province from 2009 to 2018

SU Qian, XIA Yong, LU Jia, WANG Dan-xia, HE Jin-ge()   

  1. Department of Prevention and Control of Tuberculosis, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China
  • Received:2020-06-11 Online:2020-09-10 Published:2020-09-18
  • Contact: HE Jin-ge


目的 分析四川省0~14岁儿童肺结核流行特征,掌握流行变化趋势,为加强儿童肺结核防控工作提供依据。 方法 基于《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》子系统《传染病报告信息管理系统》及其基本信息项目中报告的四川省2009—2018年0~14岁儿童肺结核患者的报告发病数据和人口数据,利用Joinpoint回归模型进行趋势性分析。结果 2009—2018年,四川省共报告0~14岁儿童肺结核10981例,占全人口肺结核报告发病例数的1.79%(10981/612506),10年间儿童肺结核实际报告发病率从2009年的8.91/10万(1349/15140100)上升至2018年的9.35/10万(1229/13141100),年均增长率为0.50%;Joinpoint回归分析显示,儿童肺结核标准化报告发病率在2009—2015年[年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)=-1.98%,P=0.196]、2015—2018年间(APC=10.13%,P=0.061)呈现阶段性变化,但均趋于稳定。0~14岁男童肺结核报告发病6011例,平均报告发病率为8.43/10万(6011/71339600),女童报告发病4970例,平均报告发病率为7.64/10万(4970/65071300),男童肺结核报告发病率普遍高于女童(χ2=26.261,P<0.001)。不同年龄组中,各组报告发病率的差异有统计学意义(χ2=3629.827,P<0.001),0~岁组(9.08/10万,774/8523100)和10~14岁组(14.37/10万,6575/45769900)儿童肺结核报告发病率普遍高于1~岁组(4.09/10万,1423/34833900)和5~岁组(4.67/10万,2209/47284100)报告发病率;Joinpoint回归分析显示,0~岁组儿童肺结核报告发病率从2009年的13.32/10万(132/991000)快速下降至2018年的3.73/10万(31/831900)(APC=-10.80%,P=0.002),10~14岁组儿童肺结核报告发病率2016年以后呈快速上升趋势,由13.39/10万(760/5676700)上升至18.88/10万(786/4162100)(APC=17.99%,P=0.042)。结论 近年来四川省儿童肺结核报告发病率整体趋于稳定,但仍有上升趋势,需要继续加强新生儿卡介苗接种、学生结核病防控、家庭内肺结核患者儿童密切接触者筛查工作。

关键词: 结核, 儿童, 发病率, 流行病学研究, 回归分析, 数据说明, 统计


Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) among children aged 0-14 in Sichuan Province from 2009 to 2018, and provide scientific evidence for strengthening prevention and control of PTB in children. Methods Based on the reported incidence data and population data of childhood PTB patients aged 0-14 years reported in the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System and Basic Information System of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System from 2009 to 2018 in Sichuan Province, the Joinpoint regression model was used for trend analysis. Results From 2009 to 2018, a total of 10981 childhood PTB cases aged 0-14 years were reported, accounting for 1.79% (10981/612506) of the reported PTB cases in the whole population. The actual reported incidence rate of PTB in children increased from 8.91/100000 (1349/15140100) in 2009 to 9.35/100000 (1229/13141100) in 2018, with an average annual growth rate of 0.50%; Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the standardized reported incidence of childhood PTB showed a periodic change during 2009—2015 (annual percentage change (APC)=-1.98%, P=0.196) and 2015—2018 (APC=10.13%, P=0.061), but both of them tended to be stable. The reported cases of PTB in boys aged 0-14 was 6011, with an average reported incidence of 8.43/100000 (6011/71339600), and 4970 reported in girls with an average reported incidence of 7.64/100000 (4970/65071300). The reported incidence of PTB in boys was generally higher than that in girls (χ2=26.261, P<0.001). Among different age groups, there were significant differences in the incidence of PTB (χ2=3629.827, P<0.001); the reported incidence of PTB was generally higher in children aged 0- years old (9.08/100000, 774/8523100) and 10-14 years old (14.37/100000, 6575/45769900)than that in children aged 1-4 years old (4.09/100000, 1423/34833900) and 5-9 years old (4.67/100000, 2209/47284100). Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the reported incidence of childhood PTB aged 0- years rapidly decreased from 13.32/100000 (132/991000) in 2009 to 3.73/100000 (31/831900) in 2018 (APC=-10.80%, P=0.002), and the reported incidence of childhood PTB aged 10-14 years significantly increased after 2016, from 13.39/100000 (760/5676700) to 18.88/100000 (786/4162100) (APC=17.99%, P=0.042). Conclusion Although the reported incidence of PTB among children in Sichuan Province tends to be stable in recent years, there is still an upward trend. It is necessary to strengthen the BCG vaccination of newborns, the prevention and control of tuberculosis in students, and the screening of close contacts of PTB patients and children in families.

Key words: Tuberculosis, Children, Incidence, Epidemiologic studies, Regression analysis, Data interpretation, statistical