关键词: 结核,肺/流行病学, 发病率, 预测, 模型,统计学, 结核, 肺/预防和控制, 广东省

Abstract: Objective  To utilize the metabolizing grey model to predict the trend of TB incidence and provide scientific evidence for formulating the related measures of prevention and control.  Methods  According to the incidence of pulmonary TB in the Guangdong province from 2001—2011, we established the conventional grey model ［gray model (1,1), referred to as GM (1,1)］ and the grey model of metabolism ［referred to as the metabolic GM (1,1) model］. We compared the precision and accuracy of model predictions by the results of short series and long series, then chose the best model for extrapolation forecast. The prediction accuracy can be showed by posterior error ratio C and small probability of error P. The smaller class the best accuracy, fist class indicate the best and four failed.  Results  The error of the grey model of metabolism is less in comparison with the corresponding dimensions of conventional grey model. The error is less in the shorter series prediction. The result of accuracy test showed that the 5-dimensional grey model of metabolism is in the first class. The model of posterior error ratio and small probability of error was 0.14 and 1 respectively.  Conclusion  The metabolic GM (1,1) is the ideal model to deal with such data, the five-dimensional metabolic GM (1,1) model has certain advantages to forecast the TB incidence in Guangdong province.

Key words: Tuberculosis,pulmonary/epidemiology, Incidence, Forecasting, Models,statistical, Tuberculosis,pulmonary/prevention &, control, Guangdong province