关键词: 结核,肺, 发病率, 预测

Abstract:

Objective: To study the trend of reported incidence of national active pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in 2009—2018, and predict the reported incidence from 2019 to 2022 and the status of ending the TB epidemic in China. Methods: The active PTB reported incidence between 2009 and 2020 were collected. The Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the trend of national active tuberculosis between 2009 to 2018 and grey model (GM (1,1)) was used to predict the reported incidence. Results: The reported incidence of active PTB in China decreased from 81.09/100000 in 2009 to 59.27/100000 in 2018 with a downward trend according to the Mann-Kendall trend test (Z=-3.940, P<0.001). In the past 10 years, it has decreased by 26.91% and the average annual decline rate is 3.42%. The grey model GM (1,1) has good fitting accuracy and could be used to predict, with an average relative error of 0.8255%, posteriori error ratio C=0.097, and small error probability P=1 between predicted value and actual value. Predicted by the GM (1,1) model, the reported incidence of active PTB in China from 2019 to 2022 were 56.7673/100000, 55.1394/100000, 53.5581/100000 and 52.0222/100000, respectively. If the concurrent TB control strategy remains unchanged, the reported incidence of active PTB will be 39.04/100000 in 2030 and 32.80/100000 in 2035 based on the average annual decline rate of 3.42%. Conclusion: From 2009 to 2018, the active PTB reported incidence in China showed a downward trend. It is difficult to achieve the WHO End TB Strategy if the current control strategy remains unchanged.

Key words: Tuberculosis, pulmonary, Incidence, Forecasting