关键词: 结核,肺, 发病率, 流行病学研究, 回归分析, 乌鲁木齐

Abstract:

Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics of new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Urumqi from 2014 to 2019, and to analyze the influencing factors of the therapeutic prognosis. Methods The information of newly diagnosed smear-positive tuberculosis patients registered in Urumqi from 2014 to 2019 was collected through the TB Information Management System of the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System, including population information, diagnostic information and information of first-diagnosed medical institutions. The annual resident population data and administrative division information of Urumqi from 2014 to 2019 were from the statistical bulletin of national economic and social development of Urumqi. The epidemiological characteristics of new smear-positive tuberculosis were described, and the influencing factors of therapeutic prognosis were analyzed. Results A total of 3029 new smear-positive tuberculosis patients were registered in Urumqi from 2014 to 2019, with an average annual registration rate of 14.31/100000. The annual registered incidence ranged from 12.76/100000 (449 cases) to 16.81/100000 (597 cases). Among the newly diagnosed smear-positive PTB patients, the majority were males (60.71% (1839/3029)) and aged ≤45 years (48.90% (1481/3029)). The incidence was high in spring and summer (26.81% (812/3029) and 26.78% (811/3029), respectively). The incidence was high in the central urban area (76.96% (2331/3029)). Multivariate logistic regression showed that: of the new smear-positive tuberculosis patients, female (OR=0.100, 95%CI=0.071-0.152), 46-65 years old (OR=0.453, 95%CI=0.302-0.683) and patients with smear-negative in sputum examination at the end of 2 months after treatment (OR=0.192, 95%CI=0.134-0.292) were more likely to be successfully treated; while treatment failure was more likely to occurred in patients without sputum examination at the end of 2 months after treatment (OR=24.442, 95%CI=10.751-55.533). Conclusion From 2014 to 2019, the registration rate of new smear-positive PTB in Urumqi City first decreased and then increased. The key prevention and control of male and middle-aged people should be strengthened in the spring and summer seasons in densely populated central urban areas. Sputum smear examination should be carried out carefully at the end of two months after treatment.

Key words: Tuberculosis,pulmonary, Incidence, Epidemiologic study, Regression analysis, Urumqi