Analysis on the current situation and trend of tuberculosis disease burden of people aged ≤24 in China from 2000 to 2021

doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20250315

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: To analyze the disease burden and changing trends of tuberculosis among individuals aged ≤24 in China from 2000 to 2021, and to provide evidence for the formulation of tuberculosis prevention and control strategies for this demographic. Methods: Age-standardized incidence, infection, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rates for tuberculosis among individuals aged ≤24 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021). Joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate long-term trends, with annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) used to quantify variations in each indicator. Results: From 2000 to 2021, the mean annual age-standardized incidence, infection, mortality, and DALYs rates for tuberculosis among individuals aged ≤24 in China were 53.51/100000, 29889.73/100000, 4.92/100000, and 180.04/100000, respectively. These indicators declined by 54.16%, 5.75%, 81.46%, and 79.67%, all demonstrating significant downward trends (AAPC=-3.639%, -0.301%, -7.745%, and -7.317%). The age-standardized infection rate decreased the least and showed two periods of temporary increase: 2005-2010 and 2015-2019 (rising from 29446.97/100000 in 2005 to 30057.59/100000 in 2010, with an APC value of 0.587%; and from 27918.13/100000 in 2015 to 30567.83/100000 in 2019, with an APC value of 2.483%). In terms of age group, the 0-4-year-old group exhibited the most significant declines in age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates (72.58%, 95.79% and 94.20%, with corresponding AAPCs of -5.970%, -14.058%, and -12.670%). In contrast, the 20-24-year-old group showed the smallest declines (AAPC=-2.378%, -8.174%, and -5.709%). Tuberculosis infection rates in the 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, and 20-24 age groups showed a phased upward trend between 2005—2010 (increasing from 7010.40/100000, 11768.47/100000, 24312.79/100000, and 32324.53/100000 in 2005 to 7334.07/100000, 12575.43/100000, 24748.90/100000, and 33308.53/100000 in 2010, with APC values of 0.913%, 1.685%, 0.560%, and 0.812%, respectively) and between 2015—2019 (increasing from 6966.83/100000, 11735.23/100000, 22668.91/100000, and 30001.30/100000 in 2015 to 8937.86/100000, 15005.36/100000, 25357.04/100000, and 32830.45/100000 in 2019, with APC values of 6.852%, 6.767%, 3.071%, and 2.464%, respectively). In terms of gender, the mean annual age-standardized incidence, infection, mortality, and DALYs rates of male tuberculosis patients (67.83/100000, 31082.59/100000, 7.03/100000, 241.34/100000, respectively) are higher than that of female patients (40.14/100000, 28673.12/100000, 3.07/100000, 121.48/100000, respectively). Although both genders exhibited significant downward trend (male AAPC=-3.396%, -0.288%, -7.221%, -6.724%; female AAPC=-4.082%, -0.317%, -8.880%, and -8.452%), the overall decline rates of male patients (51.74%, 5.55%, 79.08%, 76.83% respectively) was lower than that of female patients (58.25%, 6.02%, 85.67%, 84.23% respectively). Notably, age-standardized infection rates for both genders showed a phased upward trend between 2005—2010 (increasing from 30740.24/100000 and 28126.36/100000 in 2005 to 31252.77/100000 and 28842.19/100000 in 2010, with APC values of 0.492% and 0.696%, respectively) and between 2015—2019 (increasing from 29110.34/100000 and 26708.01/100000 in 2015 to 31696.74/100000 and 29408.98/100000 in 2019, with APC values of 2.332% and 2.637%, respectively). Conclusion: From 2000 to 2021, the tuberculosis burden among individuals aged ≤24 in China declined substaintially. However, tuberculosis infection rate remains high and is decreasing slowly. Although the females had lower tuberculosis burden than males, they experienced faster declines in all indicators. The 20-24 age group bears the highest TB burden, followed by the 0-4 age group. Strengthen the prevention and control of tuberculosis and develop more targeted epidemic prevention and control strategies are needed to further reduce tuberculosis infection and disease burden in this population.

Key words: Tuberculosis, Adolescent, Disease burden, Models, statistical, Regression analysis, Epidemiologic studies

CLC Number:

R52
R181.2

Sun Qing, Wang Xiaoping, Yang Xiaomei, Han Ruihao, Gu Yeqiu, Fu Jian. Analysis on the current situation and trend of tuberculosis disease burden of people aged ≤24 in China from 2000 to 2021[J]. Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis, 2026, 48(1): 21-33. doi: 10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20250315

Figures/Tables 6

年份	发病率						感染率
年份	0~4岁	5~9岁	10~14岁	15~19岁	20~24岁	合计	0~4岁	5~9岁	10~14岁	15~19岁	20~24岁	合计
2000	45.63	15.16	31.66	65.27	68.69	79.15	11118.99	5782.76	13252.06	28175.00	36361.37	32422.78
2001	42.18	15.25	30.27	62.28	65.88	75.73	10524.41	5891.58	12869.60	27645.33	35968.44	32027.97
2002	37.65	15.53	29.08	58.92	62.51	71.94	9706.47	6166.15	12475.02	26689.73	34978.29	31284.17
2003	32.91	15.86	28.04	55.63	59.15	68.18	8858.19	6509.03	12124.33	25611.29	33779.82	30438.99
2004	28.99	16.10	27.08	52.83	56.33	64.87	8199.52	6822.92	11871.28	24716.49	32763.56	29742.72
2005	26.79	16.12	26.16	50.94	54.57	62.44	7941.26	7010.40	11768.47	24312.79	32324.53	29466.97
2006	25.94	15.67	25.20	49.85	53.68	60.71	7974.79	7102.56	11842.01	24332.31	32428.13	29507.71
2007	25.33	14.74	24.18	49.04	53.08	59.23	8038.05	7189.86	12034.05	24457.38	32692.93	29666.79
2008	24.78	13.57	23.11	48.39	52.65	57.84	8103.20	7263.25	12271.57	24615.02	33003.55	29856.37
2009	24.13	12.35	21.96	47.74	52.24	56.42	8146.16	7314.07	12478.46	24734.41	33246.35	30009.22
2010	23.20	11.30	20.74	46.98	51.74	54.83	8142.12	7334.07	12575.43	24748.90	33308.53	30507.59
2011	21.61	10.33	19.19	45.49	50.54	52.48	8095.91	7297.15	12496.71	24491.76	32932.54	29820.63
2012	19.60	9.27	17.33	43.16	48.52	49.33	8058.28	7206.17	12288.10	23964.56	32130.83	29292.10
2013	17.61	8.27	15.49	40.53	46.25	46.01	8040.69	7096.95	12034.77	23360.02	31185.87	28667.66
2014	15.95	7.45	13.95	38.19	44.36	43.16	8022.98	7005.25	11822.08	22870.05	30380.65	28144.18
2015	15.22	6.97	13.01	36.75	43.50	41.42	8019.25	6966.83	11735.23	22686.91	30001.30	27918.13
2016	15.31	6.74	12.54	36.07	43.56	40.62	8516.66	7261.11	12231.34	23100.70	30381.07	28310.15
2017	15.46	6.58	12.20	35.52	43.82	40.06	9578.10	7916.29	13327.10	23980.61	31318.44	29196.21
2018	15.46	6.45	11.92	34.98	44.03	39.57	10599.80	8589.94	14445.07	24882.41	32304.88	30105.43
2019	15.24	6.33	11.66	34.33	43.91	39.00	11025.43	8937.86	15005.36	25357.04	32830.45	30567.83
2020	14.56	6.18	11.33	33.11	42.38	37.88	10936.44	8952.15	14999.24	25323.76	32783.68	30533.08
2021	12.51	5.53	10.32	31.75	41.54	36.28	10915.42	8921.82	15001.23	25405.96	32932.35	30557.45
均值	23.46	10.99	19.84	45.35	51.04	53.51	9025.55	7297.19	12770.39	24793.75	32728.98	29889.73
变化率 (%)	-72.58	-63.52	-67.40	-51.36	-39.53	-54.16	-1.83	52.28	13.20	-9.83	-9.43	-5.75
年份	死亡率						DALYs率
年份	0~4岁	5~9岁	10~14岁	15~19岁	20~24岁	合计	0~4岁	5~9岁	10~14岁	15~19岁	20~24岁	合计
2000	6.41	0.92	0.72	1.26	2.45	10.30	601.70	85.68	59.62	123.22	216.05	374.96
2001	5.81	0.83	0.66	1.15	2.29	9.77	545.99	78.83	55.06	114.13	203.80	352.40
2002	5.20	0.72	0.60	1.03	2.01	9.34	488.52	69.62	50.16	103.78	181.95	331.84
2003	4.46	0.62	0.55	0.92	1.81	8.93	419.85	60.76	45.66	93.83	165.23	311.30
2004	3.81	0.54	0.50	0.83	1.66	8.38	360.26	54.43	41.49	85.60	152.21	289.53
2005	3.23	0.49	0.43	0.73	1.36	7.53	307.17	49.74	36.40	76.85	130.02	259.64
2006	2.72	0.40	0.38	0.64	1.14	6.30	261.18	42.59	32.19	69.23	114.54	224.55
2007	2.28	0.33	0.34	0.56	0.97	5.48	221.61	36.35	28.51	63.00	103.09	199.23
2008	1.93	0.30	0.30	0.52	0.86	4.91	190.48	33.50	25.56	59.21	95.20	181.14
2009	1.63	0.26	0.28	0.48	0.79	4.38	163.81	29.47	24.09	55.80	90.53	164.50
2010	1.34	0.20	0.25	0.42	0.75	3.95	137.73	24.23	21.11	50.85	87.25	149.83
2011	1.14	0.18	0.22	0.39	0.69	3.62	119.30	21.73	18.93	48.23	82.34	138.67
2012	1.04	0.16	0.20	0.37	0.63	3.34	108.97	19.29	16.78	45.76	77.38	128.45
2013	0.95	0.13	0.17	0.34	0.59	3.06	98.62	16.52	14.83	42.45	73.81	117.78
2014	0.84	0.11	0.15	0.31	0.57	2.84	87.48	14.21	13.06	39.44	71.87	109.29
2015	0.76	0.10	0.14	0.30	0.56	2.72	79.47	12.99	11.80	38.21	71.14	104.30
2016	0.68	0.09	0.12	0.29	0.55	2.60	72.39	12.22	10.72	37.37	71.20	100.06
2017	0.57	0.08	0.11	0.26	0.53	2.41	62.68	11.38	9.35	35.80	70.95	94.03
2018	0.47	0.07	0.09	0.24	0.50	2.25	54.27	10.71	8.24	34.43	70.60	88.80
2019	0.38	0.06	0.08	0.22	0.47	2.10	46.68	10.02	7.33	33.07	69.29	84.08
2020	0.32	0.06	0.07	0.20	0.44	2.00	40.79	9.21	6.61	31.20	66.37	80.21
2021	0.27	0.05	0.06	0.18	0.41	1.91	34.88	7.81	5.93	28.92	63.91	76.22
均值	2.10	0.31	0.29	0.53	1.00	4.92	204.72	32.33	24.70	59.56	105.85	180.04
变化率 (%)	-95.79	-94.57	-91.67	-85.71	-83.27	-81.46	-94.20	-90.88	-90.05	-76.53	-70.42	-79.67

分类/年龄组/年份		APC值 (%)		95%CI值 (%)			t值			P值		AAPC值 (%)			95%CI值 (%)	t值		P值
发病率
0~4岁												-5.970			-6.543~-5.394	-19.761		<0.001
2000—2005		-10.511		-11.307~-9.708			-28.659			<0.001
2005—2010		-2.535		-3.759~-1.296			-4.686			0.002
2010—2015		-8.504		-9.653~-7.341			-16.218			<0.001
2015—2019		1.029		-0.970~3.068			1.182			0.271
2019—2021		-9.770		-13.305~-6.092			-5.933			<0.001
5~9岁												-4.595			-5.042~-4.146	-19.624		<0.001
2000—2005		1.628		1.035~2.225			6.360			<0.001
2005—2008		-5.623		-8.062~-3.119			-5.096			<0.001
2008—2015		-9.471		-9.871~-9.069			-51.839			<0.001
2015—2019		-1.741		-3.019~-0.446			-3.093			0.014
2019—2021		-6.209		-8.633~-3.721			-5.645			<0.001
10~14岁												-5.159			-5.400~-4.917	-40.744		<0.001
2000—2010		-3.982		-4.117~-3.847			-63.721			<0.001
2020—2015		-9.571		-10.086~-9.054			-38.840			<0.001
2015—2019		-2.141		-3.019~-1.254			-5.283			<0.001
2019—2021		-5.649		-7.335~-3.932			-7.099			<0.001
15~19岁												-3.372			-3.495~-3.248	-52.487		<0.001
2000—2005		-5.030		-5.207~-4.851			-63.484			<0.001
2005—2010		-1.278		-1.540~-1.016			-11.192			<0.001
2010—2015		-4.970		-5.222~-4.719			-44.353			<0.001
2015—2019		-1.590		-2.002~-1.177			-8.817			<0.001
2019—2021		-3.867		-4.670~-3.058			-10.850			<0.001
20~24岁												-2.378			-2.527~-2.229	-30.831		<0.001
2000—2005		-4.629		-4.816~-4.441			-55.680			<0.001
2005—2011		-1.020		-1.214~-0.826			-12.046			<0.001
2011—2014		-4.825		-5.657~-3.986			-12.993			<0.001
2014—2019		-0.079		-0.356~0.198			-0.660			<0.001
2019—2021		-2.695		-3.545~-1.837			-7.177			<0.001
感染率
0~4岁												-0.187			-0.578~0.205	-0.936		0.350
2000—2004		-7.950		-8.784~-7.108			-20.029			<0.001
2004—2015		-0.102		-0.326~0.122			-1.006			0.336
2015—2019		8.697		7.143~10.272			12.753			<0.001
2019—2021		-1.503		-4.298~1.373			-1.158			0.271
5~9岁												2.137			1.763~2.512	11.299		<0.001
2000—2005		4.269		3.711~4.830			17.960			<0.001
2005—2010		0.913		0.150~1.681			2.760			0.025
2010—2015		-1.271		-2.018~-0.519			-3.887			0.005
2015—2019		6.852		5.577~8.142			12.734			<0.001
2019—2021		-0.578		-1.935~1.838			-0.557			0.593
10~14岁											0.613			0.496~0.731			10.280	<0.001
2000—2005	-2.427		-2.593~-2.260			-33.213		<0.001
2005—2010	1.685		1.440~1.930			15.969		<0.001
2010—2015	-1.644		-1.881~-1.407			-15.848		<0.001
2015—2019	6.767		6.361~7.175			39.586		<0.001
2019—2021	-0.565		-1.321~0.196			-1.714		0.125
15~19岁											-0.522			-0.744~-0.299			-4.575	<0.001
2000—2005	-3.110		-3.427~-2.792			-22.218		<0.001
2005—2010	0.560		0.095~1.028			2.779		0.024
2010—2015	-1.934		-2.388~-1.479			-9.713		<0.001
2015—2019	3.071		2.318~3.829			9.513		<0.001
2019—2021	-0.156		-1.610~1.319			-0.246		0.812
20~24岁											-0.511			-0.761~-0.260			-3.989	<0.001
2000—2005	-2.550		-2.908~-2.190			-16.166		<0.001
2005—2010	0.812		0.288~1.339			3.578		0.007
2010—2015	-2.296		-2.804~-1.785			-10.278		<0.001
2015—2019	2.464		1.624~3.312			6.814		<0.001
2019—2021	-0.007		-1.641~1.654			-0.010		0.993
死亡率
0~4岁											-14.058			-14.430~-13.684			-68.347	<0.001
2000—2002	-9.085		-12.186~-5.875			-6.040		<0.001
2002—2011	-15.577		-15.896~-15.256			-98.413		<0.001
2011—2016	-9.910		-10.893~-8.915			-20.928		<0.001
2016—2021	-17.224		-17.864~-16.579			-53.614		<0.001
5~9岁											-13.030			-13.629~-12.427			-39.577	<0.001
2000—2005	-12.400		-14.090~-10.677			-14.574		<0.001
2005—2012	-15.326		-16.564~-14.070			-24.227		<0.001
2012—2021	-11.557		-12.258~-10.851			-33.116		<0.001
10~14岁											-11.031			-11.477~-10.583			-45.578	<0.001
2000—2003	-8.794		-11.412~-6.099			-6.780		<0.001
2003—2015	-10.910		-11.259~-10.559			-63.100		<0.001
2015—2021	-12.368		-13.227~-11.501			-28.764		<0.001
15~19岁											-8.898			-9.333~-8.460			-38.099	<0.001
2000—2010	-10.539		-10.942~-10.134			-52.887		<0.001
2010—2017	-6.541		-7.452~-5.620			-14.795		<0.001
2017—2021	-8.830		-10.487~-7.142			-10.808		<0.001
20~24岁											-8.174			-8.786~-7.558			-25.005	<0.001
2000—2004	-9.766		-10.870~-8.648			-19.252		<0.001
2004—2007	-16.780		-19.957~-13.477			-10.882		<0.001
2007—2013	-7.783		-8.582~-6.977			-21.466		<0.001
2013—2017	-2.268		-4.152~-0.348			-2.719		0.026
2017—2021	-6.075		-7.224~-4.911			-11.741		<0.001
DALYs率
0~4岁											-12.670		-12.864~-12.475			-119.238		<0.001
2000—2002	-9.786		-11.377~-8.167		-12.741				<0.001
2002—2011	-14.555		-14.721~-14.389		-178.362				<0.001
2011—2016	-9.495		-10.002~-8.984		-39.031				<0.001
2016—2021	-13.490		-13.834~-13.146		-80.181				<0.001
5~9岁											-10.776		-11.544~-10.002			-25.866		<0.001
2000—2005	-10.831		-12.102~-9.543		-17.586				<0.001
2005—2015	-12.584		-13.095~-12.071		-50.536				<0.001
2015—2019	-5.512		-8.496~-2.432		-3.890				0.003
2019—2021	-11.731		-17.217~-5.882		-4.280				0.001
10~14岁											-10.412		-10.752~-10.098			-61.532		<0.001
2000—2003	-8.326		-10.556~-6.041		-7.449				<0.001
2003—2021	-10.756		-10.896~-10.614		-151.746				<0.001
15~19岁											-6.730		-7.094~-6.365			-34.953		<0.001
2000—2007	-9.303		-9.679~-8.925		-51.707				<0.001
2007—2014	-6.438		-6.928~-5.945		-27.858				<0.001
2014—2019	-3.449		-4.394~-2.495		-7.855				<0.001
2019—2021	-6.684		-9.541~-3.736		-4.895				<0.001
20~24岁											-5.709		-6.257~-5.159			-19.800		<0.001
2000—2004	-8.958		-9.923~-7.983		-20.306				<0.001
2004—2007	-12.350		-15.255~-9.345		-9.019				<0.001
2007—2013	-5.279		-5.990~-4.562		-16.593				<0.001
2013—2019	-0.906		-1.650~-0.156		-2.785				0.024
2019—2021	-4.100		-7.279~-0.813		-2.865				0.021

年份		发病率				感染率						死亡率					DALYs率
年份		男性		女性	合计	男性		女性		合计		男性		女性	合计		男性		女性		合计
2000		96.87		62.92	79.15	33541.89		31281.37		32422.78		13.86		7.19	10.30		468.97		285.53		374.96
2001		93.14		59.80	75.73	33164.73		30869.01		32027.97		13.27		6.75	9.77		443.77		265.84		352.40
2002		89.04		56.26	71.94	32465.41		30079.04		31284.17		12.78		6.37	9.34		423.33		244.97		331.84
2003		84.98		52.72	68.18	31673.69		29178.30		30438.99		12.38		5.97	8.93		403.72		223.57		311.30
2004		81.38		49.62	64.87	31020.96		28437.08		29742.72		11.80		5.48	8.38		380.85		202.95		289.53
2005		78.66		47.42	62.44	30740.24		28126.36		29466.97		10.78		4.77	7.53		347.17		176.69		259.64
2006		76.69		45.91	60.71	30788.32		28201.01		29507.71		9.07		3.93	6.30		302.41		150.32		224.55
2007		75.00		44.60	59.23	30924.38		28384.38		29666.79		7.99		3.33	5.48		271.43		130.31		199.23
2008		73.40		43.38	57.84	31087.61		28601.68		29856.37		7.22		2.91	4.91		249.02		116.18		181.14
2009		71.74		42.14	56.42	31217.35		28779.21		30009.22		6.47		2.57	4.38		227.11		104.52		164.50
2010		69.88		40.78	54.83	31252.77		28842.19		30507.59		5.80		2.29	3.95		207.69		94.31		149.83
2011	67.12		38.80		52.48		31012.35	28610.11	29820.63		5.37		2.08			3.62		193.19		86.28	138.67
2012	63.39		36.16		49.33		30483.30	28082.99	29292.10		4.98		1.89			3.34		179.81		79.04	128.45
2013	59.44		33.41		46.01		29859.87	27457.93	28667.66		4.57		1.72			3.06		165.72		71.63	117.78
2014	56.00		31.09		43.16		29337.27	26933.53	28144.18		4.26		1.58			2.84		154.64		65.61	109.29
2015	53.81		29.75		41.42		29110.34	26708.01	27918.13		4.07		1.51			2.72		147.67		62.54	104.30
2016	52.70		29.22		40.62		29492.05	27109.00	28310.15		3.89		1.46			2.60		141.47		60.23	100.06
2017	51.88		28.88		40.06		30357.88	28012.27	29196.21		3.62		1.34			2.41		133.17		56.39	94.03
2018	51.18		28.57		39.57		31246.40	28938.23	30105.43		3.38		1.23			2.25		126.06		52.99	88.80
2019	50.39		28.17		39.00		31696.74	29408.98	30567.83		3.18		1.15			2.10		119.46		50.07	84.08
2020	49.01		27.27		37.88		31664.19	29368.84	30533.08		3.03		1.08			2.00		114.17		47.58	80.21
2021	46.75		26.27		36.28		31679.16	29399.21	30557.45		2.90		1.03			1.91		108.66		45.02	76.22
均值	67.83		40.14		53.51		31082.59	28673.12	29889.73		7.03		3.07			4.92		241.34		121.48	180.04
变化率 (%)	-51.74		-58.25		-54.16		-5.55	-6.02	-5.75		-79.08		-85.67			-81.46		-76.83		-84.23	-79.67

分类/性别/年份	APC值 (%)		95%CI值 (%)		t值		P值		AAPC值 (%)		95%CI值 (%)		t值		P值
发病率
男性									-3.396		-3.480~-3.312		-77.962		<0.001
2000—2005	-4.173		-4.295~-4.051		-72.320		<0.001
2005—2010	-2.135		-2.311~-1.959		-27.684		<0.001
2010—2015	-5.323		-5.493~-5.153		-70.162		<0.001
2015—2019	-1.427		-1.707~-1.147		-11.662		<0.001
2019—2021	-3.609		-4.156~-3.060		-14.912		<0.001
女性									-4.082		-4.227~-3.936		-53.784		<0.001
2000—2005	-5.647		-5.857~-5.437		-60.316		<0.001
2005—2010	-2.749		-3.054~-2.443		-20.449		<0.001
2010—2015	-6.384		-6.678~-6.090		-48.403		<0.001
2015—2019	-1.088		-1.579~-0.595		-5.077		<0.001
2019—2021	-3.510		-4.464~-2.546		-8.290		<0.001
感染率
男性									-0.288		-0.421~-0.155		-4.236		<0.001
2000—2005	-1.860		-2.052~-1.668		-22.157		<0.001
2005—2010	0.492		0.214~0.770		4.093		<0.001
2010—2015	-1.577		-1.849~-1.305		-13.263		<0.001
2015—2019	2.332		1.886~2.780		12.164		<0.001
2019—2021	-0.198		-1.066~0.678		-0.523		<0.001
女性										-0.317		-0.488~-0.146		-3.630	<0.001
2000—2005		-2.270		-2.515~-2.024		-21.091		<0.001
2005—2010		0.696		0.340~1.055		4.508		<0.001
2010—2015		-1.714		-2.062~-1.364		-11.229		<0.001
2015—2019		2.637		2.062~2.215		10.692		<0.001
2019—2021		-0.214		-1.328~0.913		-0.439		<0.001
死亡率
男性										-7.221		-7.719~-6.720		-27.270	<0.001
2000—2004		-3.774		-5.064~-2.466		-6.274		<0.001
2004—2009		-11.699		-12.883~-10.500		-20.293		<0.001
2009—2013		-8.014		-9.956~-6.030		-8.617		<0.001
2013—2021		-5.633		-6.071~-5.193		-27.408		<0.001
女性										-8.880		-9.351~-8.407		-35.192	<0.001
2000—2004		-6.378		-7.585~-5.155		-11.180		<0.001
2004—2008		-15.368		-17.086~-13.614		-17.901		<0.001
2008—2013		-9.679		-10.843~-8.500		-17.269		<0.001
2013—2021		-6.210		-6.629~-5.789		-31.520		<0.001
DALYs率
男性										-6.724		-6.992~-6.455		-47.447	<0.001
2000—2004		-4.840		-5.271~-4.407		-25.192		<0.001
2004—2007		-10.860		-12.131~-9.571		-18.461		<0.001
2007—2010		-8.564		-9.868~-7.242		-14.377		<0.001
2010—2014		-7.046		-7.711~-6.376		-23.465		<0.001
2014—2021		-4.980		-5.162~-4.798		-61.386		<0.001
女性										-8.452		-8.844~-8.058		-40.325	<0.001
2000—2004		-8.176		-8.800~-7.551		-29.014		<0.001
2004—2007		-14.117		-15.938~-12.256		-16.371		<0.001
2007—2010		-10.146		-12.052~-8.199		-11.509		<0.001
2010—2014		-8.456		-9.432~-7.469		-19.008		<0.001
2014—2021		-5.317		-5.588~-5.045		-43.980		<0.001

References 31

[1]	World Health Organization. Global tuberculosis report 2024. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2024.
[2]	苏茜, 夏勇, 逯嘉, 等. 2009—2018年四川省0-14岁儿童肺结核流行特征分析. 中国防痨杂志, 2020, 42(9): 942-947. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6621.2020.09.011.
[3]	刘二勇, 马艳, 李涛, 等. 全国14岁以下儿童肺结核疫情特征分析. 中国防痨杂志, 2014, 36 (12): 1015-1020.
[4]	World Health Organization. Global Programme on Tuberculosis & Lung Health. [2025-08-01]. https://data.who.int/dashboards/tuberculosis/tuberculosis-epidemiological-profile?m49=156.
[5]	陶璐秋, 章紫钰, 谭高, 等. 中国1990—2021年5岁以下儿童结核病疾病负担变化趋势. 中国学校卫生, 2024, 45(12):1792-1797. doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2024358.
[6]	戴萌娜, 袭燕, 尹文强, 等. 1990—2019年中国结核病疾病负担现状及趋势分析. 中国慢性病预防与控制, 2022, 30(10):792-797. doi:10.16386/j.cjpccd.issn.1004-6194.2022.10.017.
[7]	赵飞, 裴航, 姚媛媛, 等. 1990—2019年中国与“一带一路”沿线南亚三国结核病疾病负担研究. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2023, 27(2):169-175. doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.02.008.
[8]	曾四清. Joinpoint回归模型及其在传染病流行趋势分析中的应用. 中国卫生统计, 2019, 36(5):787-791.
[9]	谢煜相, 刘月凤, 黄鹏, 等. 2017—2022年南昌市肺结核疾病负担调查分析. 南昌大学学报(医学版), 2024, 64(4):93-98. doi:10.13764/j.cnki.ncdm.2024.04.017.
[10]	陆伟, 周扬, 刘剑君. 新中国成立70年来我国结核病防治工作的进展与成就. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2019, 23(7):754-757,762. doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.07.003.
[11]	中华人民共和国国家卫生计划生育委员会办公厅, 中华人民共和国教育部办公厅. 关于印发学校结核病防控工作规范(2017版)的通知. 国卫办疾控发〔2017〕22号. 2017-06-26.
[12]	中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会办公厅, 中华人民共和国教育部办公厅. 国家卫生健康委办公厅教育部办公厅关于印发中国学校结核病防控指南的通知. 国卫办疾控函〔2020〕910号. 2020-10-16.
[13]	王慧娟, 程瑞霞, 许佳. 肺结核患者服药依从性研究进展. 中国防痨杂志, 2025, 47(9): 1212-1219. doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20250173.
[14]	姚晶, 沈鑫, 顾凯侃, 等. 国内外儿童及学校结核病疫情概况. 结核病与肺部健康杂志, 2019, 8(2):142-145. doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-3755.2019.02.014.
[15]	中国防痨协会. 结核病研究进展报告 (2020). 北京: 人民卫生出版社, 2021: 310.
[16]	梁雪芳, 王志英, 朱志鹏. 学校结核病传播动力学特征与防控策略研究进展. 中国防痨杂志, 2025, 47(S1): 375-379.
[17]	张春华, 陈伟. 儿童结核病流行现状与经济负担研究进展. 结核与肺部疾病杂志, 2022, 3(5): 405-409. doi:10.19983/j.issn.2096-8493.20220131.
[18]	毛俊杰, 鲁佳旺. 结核病传播动力学模型研究进展. 中国感染控制杂志, 2023, 22 (7): 864-868. doi:10.12138/j.issn.1671-9638.20233381.
[19]	王江峡, 许红梅. 儿童结核病的合理用药. 中国实用儿科杂志, 2022, 37(6):444-450. doi:10.19538/j.ek2022060606.
[20]	卓文基, 张晨晨, 陈珣珣, 等. 2014—2020年广东省儿童肺结核耐药特征分析. 中国防痨杂志, 2023, 45(7): 687-692. doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20230109.
[21]	程俊杰, 李金梦, 张若英, 等. 儿童结核患者抗结核药物血药浓度影响因素及其安全性分析. 中国现代应用药学, 2024, 41(9):1247-1254. doi:10.13748/j.cnki.issn1007-7693.20232515.
[22]	王前, 王嘉, 李玉红, 等. 重视儿童结核病防治关爱儿童健康. 中国防痨杂志, 2023, 45(1):1-5. doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20220462.
[23]	宋媛媛, 李涛, 夏辉, 等. 1997—2003年全国肺结核报告发病流行病学特征. 中国防痨杂志, 2024, 46(10):1198-1208. doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20240382.
[24]	梁雪芳, 王志英, 朱志鹏, 等. 特殊人群结核病关怀的研究进展. 中国防痨杂志, 2025, 47(12):1644-1650. doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20250251.
[25]	孔雯, 丁晓艳, 竺丽梅, 等. 儿童接种卡介苗3-6年后PPD结果及其对结核潜伏感染的影响. 中国学校卫生, 2019, 40(9):1366-1368. doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2019.09.024.
[26]	梁麟龙, 裴异, 周海依, 等. 2014—2023年湖南省0-14岁儿童肺结核流行特征及变化趋势. 中国防痨杂志, 2025, 47(1):29-35. doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20240341.
[27]	周长强. 海南省结核病流行特征、疾病负担及影响因素研究. 青岛:山东大学, 2024. doi:10.27272/d.cnki.gshdu.2024.000246.
[28]	刘二勇, 李惠民, 赵顺英, 等. 儿童结核病流行病学及诊治现状. 中国实用儿科杂志, 2018, 33(6): 423-426. doi:10.19538/j.ek2018060606.
[29]	张梦迪, 王琦琦, 王鑫, 等. 2005—2020年中国60岁及以上老年人群肺结核疾病负担研究. 中国防痨杂志, 2025, 47(3):338-347. doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20240508.
[30]	方良梅, 苗瑞芬, 王荣, 等. 1992—2021年中国耐多药结核病疾病负担变化趋势分析. 中国全科医学, 2025, 28(17):2163-2171. doi: 10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2024.0660
[31]	张馨月, 王瑜, 熊丽蓉. 1990—2021年中国耐多药结核病负担趋势及其危险因素分析. 现代预防医学, 2025, 52(9):1544-1549. doi:10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202412525.

分类/年份	APC值 (%)	95%CI值 (%)	t值	P值	AAPC值 (%)	95%CI值 (%)	t值	P值
发病率					-3.639	-3.742~-3.536	-68.120	<0.001
2000—2005	-4.746	-4.894~-4.600	-71.825	<0.001
2005—2010	-2.350	-2.565~-2.134	-24.839	<0.001
2010—2015	-5.703	-5.910~-5.494	-61.333	<0.001
2015—2019	-1.265	-1.609~-0.920	-8.409	<0.001
2019—2021	-3.535	-4.206~-2.860	-11.888	<0.001
感染率					-0.301	-0.452~-0.150	-3.904	<0.001
2000—2005	-2.054	-2.271~-1.837	-21.623	<0.001
2005—2010	0.587	0.272~0.902	4.310	0.003
2010—2015	-1.643	-1.951~-1.335	-12.204	<0.001
2015—2019	2.483	1.977~2.991	11.424	<0.001
2019—2021	-0.200	-1.183~0.793	-0.465	0.654
死亡率					-7.745	-8.141~-7.346	-36.670	<0.001
2000—2004	-4.744	-5.767~-3.710	-9.911	<0.001
2004—2008	-13.226	-14.695~-11.733	-18.297	<0.001
2008—2013	-8.707	-9.687~-7.716	-18.576	<0.001
2013—2021	-5.770	-6.121~-5.419	-35.128	<0.001
DALYs率					-7.317	-7.588~-7.045	-50.862	<0.001
2000—2004	-6.117	-6.550~-5.681	-31.473	<0.001
2004—2007	-11.963	-13.241~-10.666	-20.092	<0.001
2007—2010	-9.052	-10.372~-7.712	-14.961	<0.001
2010—2014	-7.475	-8.149~-6.796	-24.503	<0.001
2014—2021	-5.089	-5.274~-4.903	-61.631	<0.001