Abstract:

Objective: To analyze the epidemic characteristics and trends of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in different age groups in Sichuan from 2011 to 2020. Methods: The reported incidence data and population data of PTB patients in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2020 were collected through the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System and Basic Information System, the subsystem of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and the trend analysis was carried out using the JoinPoint regression model. Results: From 2011 to 2020, 567300 PTB cases were reported in Sichuan. The reported incidence rate decreased from 81.14/100000 (65250 cases) in 2011 to 55.19/100000 (46218 cases) in 2020 with the annual decreasing rate of 4.19%, the standardized incidence rate showed a downward trend (annual percent change, APC), the APC and average annual percent change (AAPC) both were -4.0% (95%CI: -4.7%--3.3%). The average onset age increased from 44.19 years in 2011 to 45.45 years in 2020 with increasement of 0.104 years every year (β=0.104, P=0.008). During the 10 years, the incidence rate of PTB was the highest in people aged 65 or above (96.94/100000, 99961 cases). The peak age of incidence rate moved from 65 years (113.08/100000, 9694 cases) in 2011 to 15-24 years (89.77/100000, 8688 cases) in 2020. The incidence rate of people aged 25 and above showed a downward trend. The incidence rates of 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65 years and above decreased from 87.83/100000 (8855 cases), 77.89/100000 (12596 cases), 97.37/100000 (9778 cases), 121.07/100000 (11308 cases) and 113.08/100000 (9694 cases), respectively in 2011 to 62.85/100000 (6663 cases), 40.57/100000 (4754 cases), 58.23/100000 (8376 cases), 62.67/100000 (6543 cases) and 73.43/100000 (9686 cases), respectively in 2020. The AAPCs were -4.5% (95%CI: -7.8%--1.1%), -7.7% (95%CI: -8.9%--6.6%), -4.9% (95%CI: -8.9%--0.8%), -6.8% (95%CI: -8.0%--5.6%) and -4.6% (95%CI: -5.8%--3.4%), respectively. The incidence rate of children aged 0-14 years increased from 6.96/100000 (923 cases) in 2015 to 10.98/100000 (1508 cases) in 2020 with the APC of 9.2% (95%CI: 4.1%-14.4%). Conclusion: Although the incidence of PTB in Sichuan Province has been decreasing, the incidence rate of children and adolescents under 25 years old has been increasing in recent years, comprehensive prevention and control measures should be taken. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the elderly people.

Key words: Tuberculosis, pulmonary, Incidence, Age distribution, Data interpretation, statistical