Abstract:

Objective To investigate the epidemic trend of tuberculosis of students in Shanghai from 2009 to 2017, to improve the tuberculosis control management. Methods The reported data of tuberculosis were collected from Tuberculosis Information Management System, including general conditions, medical information, and diagnosis results, etc. And data of student population were collected from Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2018. The characteristics of student tuberculosis epidemic in Shanghai from 2009 to 2017 were described by indicators such as the reported incidence of student tuberculosis, the sequence of reported student cases in population, and the trend of incidence (calculated by linear regression analysis method of annual change percentage (APC)). Results From 2009 to 2017, the reported incidence of tuberculosis among students were between 15/100000 and 20/100000 in Shanghai, the incidence decreased from 19.70/100000 (386/1959700) in 2009 to 15.31/100000 (301/1966300) in 2017 (Y=58.562-0.030X, APC=-2.96, t=-5.158, P=0.001). The reported cases were increased by age with the peak at 19 years old and above (when at college) (61.94% (1963/3169)), and male cases were significantly more than female cases (63.27% (2005/3169) vs. 36.73% (1164/3169), χ ²=18.226, P=0.020). The local cases decreased from 64.77% (250/386) in 2009 to 45.85% (138/301) in 2017 (Y=83.109-0.042X, APC=-4.11, t=-7.897, P<0.001), while the immigrant cases increased from 35.23% (136/386) in 2009 to 54.15% (163/301) in 2017 (Y=-108.161+0.053X, APC=5.44, t=7.653, P<0.001). It was found that the ratio of severe patients decreased from the peak of 47.35% (170/359) in 2011 to 3.65% (11/301) in 2017 (Y=339.673-0.170X, APC=-15.63, t=-2.243, P=0.060), the ratio of severe patients in immigrant cases decreased from the peak of 48.34% (73/151) in 2011 to 6.13% (10/163) in 2017, also showing (Y=293.665-0.147X, APC=-13.67, t=-2.616, P=0.035). Conclusion The reported incidence of tuberculosis in students was decreasing, cases were mainly from college. The reported number of immigrant cases was increased, but the ratio of severe patients was decreased significantly.

Key words: Tuberculosis,pulmonary, Students, Incidence, Epidemiologic study characteristics as topic, Factor analysis,statistical, Shanghai