关键词: 结核, 肺/流行病学, 患病率, 模型, 统计学

Abstract: Objective  Application of Kriging interpolation analysis to study the spatial distribution of the prevalence rate of active pulmonary tuberculosis in China and to provide scientific basis for prevention tuberculosis.  Methods  Data were collected from the fourth national TB epidemiological surveys, relevant databases were set up. A total of 365 097 people were investigated in the fourth survey, 1340 active pulmonary TB patients were found. The prevalence rate of active pulmonary tuberculosis in China was 367.03/100 000(1340/365 097). Kriging interpolation analysis was applied to analyze the spatial distribution of the prevalence rate of active pulmonary tuberculosis.  Results   1)The semivariogram analysis showed that there was moderate spatial autocorrelation of the prevalence rate of active pulmonary tuberculosis in China C₀/（C₀+C）=66.14%. 2)The spatial distribution of the prevalence rate of active pulmonary tuberculosis was unbalanced in China by the disjunctive Kriging interpolation analysis.  Conclusion  Kriging interpolation analysis was helpful in making overall estimate of nationwide prevalence of active pulmonary TB through sampling survey data.

Key words: Tuberculosis,pulmonary/epidemiology, Prevalence, Models,statistical