Estimation of the national burden on latent tuberculosis infection based a multi-center epidemiological survey and the space statistics model

doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20210661

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in China, which would provide essential evidence for improving the comprehensive strategy of tuberculosis (TB) control. Methods: The data of multi-center LTBI epidemiological survey in 2013 and the nationwide incidence of reported TB by counties between 2013-2019 were collected, and the prevalence of LTBI was estimated by using the Biased Sample Hospital-based Area Disease Estimation (B-SHADE). The accuracy was verified by using cross validation method with the survey data of two additional study sites. Results: In 2013, the prevalence of LTBI in people 5 years old and above was 18.08% (95%CI: 13.73%-22.42%) and in people 15 years old and above was 20.34% (95%CI: 15.63%-25.06%), respectively. The LTBI prevalence showed a trend of increasing with age and it was significantly higher in men (24.02% (95%CI: 18.27%-29.77%)) than that in women (16.91% (95%CI: 12.13%-21.70%)) at 15 years old and above group. The average absolute error of the estimations of two additional verification sites by B-SHADE model was found to be 0.95%. Conclusion: The prevalence of LTBI estimated by using the results of multi-center epidemiological survey and B-SHADE method makes up the lack of relevant data in recent years, which will provide evidence for China to timely strengthen LTBI management in target populations and to improve the prevention based TB control strategy.

Key words: Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Infectious disease incubation period, Infection, Protective agents, Models,statistical

CLC Number:

R521
C32

GAO Lei, ZHANG Hui, HU Mao-gui, XU Cheng-dong, XIA Yin-yin, LI Tao, CHEN Wei, HE Yi-jun, CAO Xue-fang, XIN He-nan, ZHANG Hao-ran, ZHAO Yan-lin, WANG Jin-feng, CHENG Shi-ming, JIN Qi, LIU Jian-jun. Estimation of the national burden on latent tuberculosis infection based a multi-center epidemiological survey and the space statistics model[J]. Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis, 2022, 44(1): 54-59. doi: 10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20210661

Figures/Tables 5

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年龄组	全人群	男性	女性
≥5岁	18.08 (13.73~22.42)	21.42 (16.26~26.59)	15.31 (10.81~19.81)
≥15岁	20.34 (15.63~25.06)	24.02 (18.27~29.77)	16.91 (12.13~21.70)
5~14岁	2.54 (0.48~4.60)	2.36 (0.81~3.91)	2.51 (0.00~5.84)
15~39岁	10.86 (6.62~15.11)	12.42 (6.33~18.51)	9.86 (6.18~13.55)
40~59岁	22.46 (17.81~27.11)	28.01 (22.48~33.54)	18.23 (12.90~23.55)
≥60岁	38.36 (31.25~45.46)	44.94 (36.22~53.65)	32.18 (23.10~41.26)

验证点	县(区)1	县(区)2	平均绝对误差
江苏省丹阳市、河南省中牟县	4.59	2.42	3.51
江苏省丹阳市、湖南省湘潭县	3.44	3.03	3.23
江苏省丹阳市、广东省英德市	4.31	0.40	2.35
江苏省丹阳市、重庆市南川区	4.60	2.21	3.40
江苏省丹阳市、甘肃省陇西县	4.56	1.05	2.80
河南省中牟县、湖南省湘潭县	0.10	4.66	2.38
河南省中牟县、广东省英德市	0.42	0.57	0.49
河南省中牟县、重庆市南川区	0.02	0.26	0.14
河南省中牟县、甘肃省陇西县	0.12	0.62	0.37
湖南省湘潭县、广东省英德市	5.39	0.48	2.94
湖南省湘潭县、重庆市南川区	5.32	0.04	2.68
湖南省湘潭县、甘肃省陇西县	5.51	2.22	3.87
广东省英德市、重庆市南川区	1.09	0.81	0.95
广东省英德市、甘肃省陇西县	0.19	1.96	1.07
重庆市南川区、甘肃省陇西县	0.24	1.83	1.03
平均绝对误差	2.66	1.50	2.08