Abstract:

Preventive treatment for high-risk population with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is an effective tool to reduce the incidence rate of tuberculosis (TB), and also an important strategy for achieving the global goals of the End TB Strategy. As a high burden country of TB, how to achieve the goal of rapid decline in TB incidence by carrying out LTBI treatment is worth exploring in China. First of all, accurately mastering the burden and epidemic characteristics of LTBI in China is the premise to discuss the feasibility and scientific of the strategy. In the absence of nationwide epidemiological investigation of LTBI, the LTBI burden in China was estimated by small sample spatial statistical model based on the epidemiological LTBI survey data of interferon-gamma release assay and the nationwide incidence of reported TB. The results showed, in 2013, the prevalence of LTBI in people aged 5 years old and above was 18.1% (95%CI: 13.7%-22.4%) and in people aged 15 years old and above was 20.3% (95%CI: 15.6%-25.1%), respectively. The LTBI prevalence showed a trend of increasing with age and it was significantly higher in men than that in women at the same age group. Experts in the field have extensively demonstrated the results and formed the Expert consensus on the estimation of the national burden on latent tuberculosis infection as reference for improving Chinese TB control.

Key words: Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Infectious disease incubation period, Protective agents, Models,statistical