Abstract:

Objective：To analyze the trend of pulmonary tuberculosis （PTB） incidence among residents in Haidian District，Beijing from 2012 to 2022，and to investigate the relationship between PTB incidence and population density，thereby providing a theoretical basis for formulating regional PTB prevention and control measures. Methods：Utilizing data from the PTB case notification cards of PTB patients in Haidian District，Beijing （2012—2022），the crude incidence rate （CIR） and age-standardized incidence rate （ASIR） of PTB were calculated. The Estimated Annual Percentage Change （EAPC） was used to analyze the temporal trend of PTB incidence among residents during this period. A piecewise linear regression model （PLRM） was employed to evaluate the associations between PTB incidence and migrant population density，as well as resident population density，respectively. Results：From 2012 to 2022，a total of 11657 PTB cases were reported among residents in Haidian District. The average annual number of incident cases was 1059.73，and the age-standardized average annual number of incident cases was 1076.15. The average annual permanent resident population was 3.417 million. The number of male cases （7193） was 1.61 times that of female cases （4464）. The average CIR and ASIR were 31.01 per 100000 （1059.73/3.417 million） and 31.49 per 100000 （1076.15/3.4170 million），respectively. Specifically，CIR decreased from 43.24 per 100000 （1452/3.3582 million） in 2012 to 24.14 per 100000 （754/3.1240 million） in 2022，and ASIR decreased from 44.68 per 100000 （1446.29/3.2370 million） in 2012 to 21.24 per 100000 （687.54/3.2370 million） in 2022，both showing a significant downward trend （EAPC=-5.37% and -6.21%，respectively，both P<0.001）. For males，CIR decreased from 52.90 per 100000 （916/1.7316 million） in 2012 to 27.55 per 100000 （429/1.5570 million） in 2022，and ASIR decreased from 56.54 per 100000 （937.90/1.6413 million） in 2012 to 23.79 per 100000 （390.47/1.6413 million） in 2022. For females，CIR decreased from 32.95 per 100000 （536/1.6265 million） in 2012 to 20.74 per 100000 （325/1.5670 million） in 2022，and ASIR decreased from 32.88 per 100000 （524.70/1.5956 million） in 2012 to 18.79 per 100000 （299.88/1.5956 million） in 2022. All gender-specific rates showed significant downward trends （EAPC=-6.06%，-6.84%，-4.11% and -4.88%，respectively，all P<0.001）. The crude incidence rate in the 0-24 age group dropped from 39.30 per 100000 （437/1.1120 million） in 2012 to 4.52 per 100000 （50/1.1059 million） in 2022，with the largest decline （EAPC=-13.52%，P<0.001）. The rates in the 55-64 age group and the ≥75 age group decreased from 47.61 per 100000 （130/0.2730 million） and 120.84 per 100000 （145/0.1200 million） in 2012 to 29.18 per 100000 （117/0.2132 million） and 75.93 per 100000 （147/0.1936 million） in 2022，respectively，with relatively mild declines （EAPC=-3.19% and -3.83%，respectively，both P<0.001）. The crude incidence rate showed a trend of initial decrease followed by increase at a floating population density of 5.119 thousand persons/km² and a permanent resident population density of 12.354 thousand persons/km² （R²=0.156，P<0.001；R²=0.191，P<0.001）. Conclusion：The overall incidence of PTB among residents in Haidian District，Beijing showed a downward trend from 2012 to 2022. Given the potential association between PTB incidence and population density，targeted PTB prevention and control strategies should be formulated，and relevant work should be strengthened according to local conditions.

Key words: Tuberculosis, pulmonary, Incidence, Population density, Linear models, Regression analysis