Abstract:

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 years in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2023, and to provide references for the formulation and adjustment of pediatric tuberculosis prevention and control policies. Methods: The surveillance data of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 years in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2023 were collected from the Infectious Disease Surveillance System. The epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 years were analyzed during the study period, and the incidence trend was analyzed using Joinpoint regression model. Results: From 2014 to 2023, a total of 3350 cases of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 were reported cumulatively in Hunan Province, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 2.64/100000, and the reported incidence rate increased from 1.80/100000 (220 cases) in 2014 to 3.19/100000 (384 cases) in 2023, with an overall upward trend ($\chi_{\text {trend }}^{2}$=82.928, P<0.001). The average annual incidence was 2.46/100000 (1691 cases) in boys and 2.85/100000 (1659 cases) in girls, and the reported incidence for girls was higher than those for boys, with a statistically significant difference (χ²=17.870, P<0.001). The reported incidence of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2023 showed an overall upward trend in Joinpoint regression analysis, with an average annual increase of 5.759% (AAPC=5.759%, 95%CI: 0.245%-11.577%, t=2.411, P=0.042). The variation tendency of girls was similar to that of all children, with an average annual increase of 7.511% (AAPC=7.511%, 95%CI: 0.471%-15.044%, t=2.466, P=0.039), and there was no statistically significant difference in the trend for boys (AAPC=4.066%, 95%CI: ―0.548%-8.893%, t=2.027, P=0.077). A total of 1030 cases with positive etiological test were reported, accounting for 30.75% (1030/3350) of all reported pediatric tuberculosis cases. The proportion of etiology positive tests increased from 21.82% in 2014 (48/220) to 41.41% in 2023 (159/384), showing a yearly increasing trend ($\chi_{\text {trend }}^{2}$=139.436, P<0.001). The most cases were reported in October (12.21%, 409/3350), and the cases reported throughout the year were mainly concentrated in July-October (44.99%, 1507/3350). Conclusion: From 2014 to 2023, the reported incidence of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 years in Hunan Province generally showed an upward trend, and the number of cases with etiology positive also increased year by year. The active surveillance efforts should be continued, and the prevention and control strategies should be adjusted in combination with the actual incidence of tuberculosis among children in various regions.

Key words: Tuberculosis, Child, Epidemiologic studies, Models, statistical