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中国防痨杂志, 2022, 44(7): 690-697 doi: 10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20220023

论著

2014—2018年佛山市肺结核患者复发情况及影响因素分析

钟倩红1, 马晓慧1, 钟永辉1, 赵之梦1, 张锡林,1, 许邦2, 罗洁莹3, 钟丽萍4, 戴磊5

1广东省佛山市第四人民医院结核病防治科,佛山 528000

2广东省佛山市南海区疾病预防控制中心结核病控制项目股,佛山 528000

3广东省佛山市顺德区慢性病防治中心结核病防治科,佛山 528000

4广东省佛山市三水区疾病防治所结核病防治科,佛山 528000

5广东省佛山市高明区慢性病防治站结核病防治科,佛山 528000

Analysis of recurrence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Foshan and the influencing factors from 2014 to 2018

ZHONG Qian-hong1, MA Xiao-hui1, ZHONG Yong-hui1, ZHAO Zhi-meng1, ZHANG Xi-lin,1, XU Bang2, LUO Jie-ying3, ZHONG Li-ping4, DAI Lei5

1Department of Tuberculosis Platform and Treatment, the Forth People’s Hospital of Foshan City, Guangdong Province, Foshan 528000, China

2Tuberculosis Control Project Unit, Nanhai District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Foshan City, Guangdong Province, Foshan 528000, China

3Department of Tuberculosis Platform and Treatment, Chronic Disease Control Center, Shunde District, Foshan City, Guangdong Province, Foshan 528000, China

4Department of Tuberculosis Platform and Treatment, Sanshui District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Foshan City, Guangdong Province, Foshan 528000, China

5Department of Tuberculosis Platform and Treatment, Chronic Disease Control Station, Gaoming District, Foshan City, Guangdong Province, Foshan 528000, China

通信作者: 张锡林,Email: zhangxlsn@163.com

责任编辑: 王然

收稿日期: 2022-02-9  

基金资助: 2020年度广东省医学科研基金非资助项目(B2020108)

Corresponding authors: ZHANG Xi-lin, Email: zhangxlsn@163.com

Received: 2022-02-9  

Fund supported: Non-financial Support from the Medical Research Fund Project of Guangdong Province(B2020108)

摘要

目的 通过对佛山市肺结核患者复发率及其影响因素的研究,为预防肺结核复发提供科学依据。方法 从《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》子系统《结核病管理信息系统》中,收集2014年1月至2018年12月佛山市报告登记、且治疗结果为治愈或完成疗程的15208例初治肺结核患者病案信息,采用Cox比例风险回归模型对161例复发肺结核患者的一般资料、临床信息、病原学结果及治疗转归等情况进行分析。结果 15208例肺结核患者5年内发现161例(1.06%)复发。1年后的累积复发率为0.40%(61/15208),2年后的累积复发率为0.70%(106/15208),5年后的累积复发率为1.05%(159/15208)。在Cox比例风险回归模型中,本地户籍(HR=1.56,95%CI:1.14~2.14,P=0.005)、诊断时痰涂片阳性(HR=2.92,95%CI:2.10~4.06,P<0.001)、治疗2个月末痰涂片阳性(HR=3.94,95%CI:2.41~6.47,P<0.001)、血尿素氮异常(HR=8.76,95%CI:5.00~15.36,P<0.001)是肺结核复发的独立危险因素。结论 重点加强对本地户籍、诊断时痰涂片阳性、血尿素氮异常的肺结核患者的管理,保证其规范治疗管理质量,同时对这一类肺结核复发的高危人群开展有针对性的干预措施,可减少肺结核复发。

关键词: 结核; 复发; 危险因素; 回归分析

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the recurrence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Foshan and its influencing factors,to provide scientific basis for preventing the recurrence of pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods: The medical record information of 15208 newly treated pulmonary tuberculosis patients who were reported and registered in Foshan City and whose treatment results were cured or the course of treatment was completed from January 2014 to December 2018 were collected from the “Tuberculosis Management Information System”, a subsystem of the “Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System”. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the general data, clinical information, etiological results and treatment outcome of 161 patients with recurrent pulmonary tuberculosis. Results: A total of 15208 cases were included in this study. Of them, 161 cases (1.06%) relapse within 5 years. The cumulative recurrence rates were 0.40% (61/15208) after 1 year, 0.70% (106/15208) after 2 years, and 1.05% (159/15208) after 5 years. In the Cox proportional hazards regression model, local household registration (HR=1.56, 95%CI: 1.14-2.14, P=0.005), positive sputum smear at diagnosis (HR=2.92, 95%CI: 2.10-4.06, P<0.001), positive sputum smear after 2 months of treatment (HR=3.94, 95%CI: 2.41-6.47, P<0.001), abnormal blood urea nitrogen (HR=8.76, 95%CI: 5.00-15.36, P<0.001) were independent risk factors for the recurrence of pulmonary tuberculosis. Conclusion: The management of tuberculosis patients with local household registration, positive sputum smear at diagnosis, and abnormal blood urea nitrogen should be strengthened, and the quality of standardized treatment and management should be ensured. At the same time, targeted intervention measures should be carried out for this kind of high-risk population to reduce recurrence of pulmonary tuberculosis.

Keywords: Tuberculosis; Recurrence; Risk factors; Regression analysis

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本文引用格式

钟倩红, 马晓慧, 钟永辉, 赵之梦, 张锡林, 许邦, 罗洁莹, 钟丽萍, 戴磊. 2014—2018年佛山市肺结核患者复发情况及影响因素分析. 中国防痨杂志, 2022, 44(7): 690-697. Doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20220023

ZHONG Qian-hong, MA Xiao-hui, ZHONG Yong-hui, ZHAO Zhi-meng, ZHANG Xi-lin, XU Bang, LUO Jie-ying, ZHONG Li-ping, DAI Lei. Analysis of recurrence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Foshan and the influencing factors from 2014 to 2018. Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis, 2022, 44(7): 690-697. Doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20220023

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结核病是全球严重的公共卫生问题,同时是全球十大主要死因之一[1]。目前各国报道的肺结核复发率也各不相同,从0.4%~13.05%不等[2-8]。一项也门的研究中,其成功治疗的肺结核患者复发率为4.7%[7]。另外一项印度多中心的研究显示,1210例成功治疗的肺结核患者中,有158例患者复发,其复发率高达13.05%[8]。在肺结核低负担国家,肺结核的复发率低于高负担国家,在一项随访时间中位数为7.8年的研究中显示,肺结核的复发率为3.4%[5]。我国一项800人的研究表明,肺结核的复发率为5.45%[9]。肺结核复发伴随而来的可能是肺结核耐药的问题,耐药结核分枝杆菌的出现使得结核病防治更加困难。因此,发现肺结核复发的高危因素,并根据其高危因素制定相应的预防措施,可有效减少肺结核的复发,进而达到肺结核防治的目的。本研究对佛山市2014—2018年的15208例肺结核患者进行分析,旨在分析肺结核的复发率及其引起复发可能的影响因素,为肺结核的复发及防治提供新的思路及科学依据。

对象和方法

一、 研究对象

收集《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》子系统《结核病管理信息系统》中,2014年1月至2018年12月佛山市报告登记的肺结核患者,共18488例,最终纳入研究治愈及完成疗程的患者15208例,其中,男性患者10586例(69.6%),女性患者4622例(30.4%),并对纳入研究的15208例患者每年进行电话随访。

二、 研究方法

本研究采用回顾性队列研究方法,对《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》子系统《结核病管理信息系统》中2014年1月至2018年12月佛山市报告登记、且治疗结果为治愈或完成疗程的15208例初治肺结核患者进行调查,对纳入队列的肺结核患者的一般资料、临床信息、病原学结果及治疗转归等资料进行收集。同时对纳入队列的患者在治疗结束后的0.5年、1年、2年、3年、4年、5年等时间节点进行随访复查(主要为胸部X线检查,胸部X线异常者则进行痰涂片及培养检查),分析肺结核患者的复发情况。

三、相关定义[10]

1.复发患者:曾接受过抗结核治疗,且最近疗程结束时被宣布为“治愈”或“完成疗程”,但在研究时间内又被诊断为结核病的患者。初治肺结核患者采用标准的短程化疗方案进行治疗。

2.累积复发率:是指通过寿命表计算的累积复发概率,等于1减去患者在时间排序上未复发的概率连续乘积。

3.重症肺结核:病原学阴性且肺部影像出现空洞的肺结核患者。

四、统计学方法

使用R 4.0.5软件对数据进行整理,采用Cox比例风险模型对各变量进行单因素分析,初步发现与复发有关的影响因素,评价风险比(hazard ratio,HR)和95%CI;通过Schoenfeld残差图检验观察变量是否符合PH假定;并将符合PH假定,同时单因素分析差异有统计学意义的因素用Cox回归模型进行多因素分析,以调整后的风险比(adjusted hazard ratio,aHR)进行评价,考虑到样本量较大,认为aHR>1.5或aHR<0.7为风险比有系统性意义,以P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。

结果

一、 复发情况

本研究共纳入肺结核患者15208例,出现复发结局的患者有161例,复发率为1.06%。1年后的累积复发率为0.40%(61/15208),2年后的累积复发率为0.70%(106/15208),5年后的累积复发率为1.05%(159/15208)。

以患者纳入队列时的年龄为准,患者年龄中位数为40岁;截止到2020年12月30日,患者的最短随访时间为0.63个月,最长随访时间为80.27个月,随访月数中位数为47.23个月。复发患者的最短复发时间为0.63个月,最长复发时间为70.07个月,中位复发时间为15.77个月。纳入研究的肺结核患者以继发性肺结核为主。见表1

表1   肺结核患者队列人口学特征及单因素Cox分析

变量复发未复发HR(95%CI)值P
例数构成比(%)例数构成比(%)
性别0.004
1291.21045799.81.00
320.7459099.30.57(0.39~0.84)
年龄(岁)0.007
≤50960.91040599.11.00
>50651.4464298.61.54(1.12~2.11)
少数民族0.506
1561.11444398.91.00
50.860499.20.74(0.30~1.80)
本地户籍0.010
710.9814899.11.00
901.3689998.71.50(1.10~2.05)
患者来源
健康检查40.491499.61.00
接触者检查00.082100.0-0.994
因症就诊201.1184198.92.44(0.84~7.15)0.103
转诊1061.1952798.92.45(0.90~6.64)0.079
追踪311.2265098.82.56(0.91~7.22)0.076
其他00.033100.0-0.996
就诊间隔大于14d0.001
541.6331198.41.00
1070.91173699.10.59(0.42~0.81)
空洞<0.001
940.81097299.21.00
671.6407598.41.91(1.40~2.61)
变量复发未复发HR(95%CI)值P
例数构成比(%)例数构成比(%)
诊断时痰检结果<0.001
涂阴670.61031199.41.00
涂阳942.0468998.03.07(2.24~4.20)
治疗2个月末痰检结果<0.001
涂阴1300.91416499.11.00
涂阳123.334996.73.77(2.09~6.81)
培养结果0.005
培阴30.2155999.81.00
培阳171.1148698.95.92(1.73~20.2)
合并其他结核0.144
1511.11351598.91.00
100.6153299.40.62(0.33~1.18)
合并症0.006
1421.01402599.01.00
191.8102298.21.95(1.21~3.15)
糖尿病<0.001
1451.01441099.01.00
162.563797.52.57(1.53~4.30)
患者诊断分型
原发性肺结核00.01100.0--
血行播散性肺结核00.018100.0--
继发性肺结核1611.11502898.9--
重症0.184
1361.01322699.01.00
251.4182198.61.34(0.87~2.05)
治疗管理方式<0.001
全程督导981.4671098.61.00
全程管理00.02400.00(0~inf)0.993
强化期督导600.7828699.30.47(0.34~0.65)<0.001
自服药310.02790.06.90(2.19~21.78)<0.001
系统管理0.001
45.37194.71.00
1571.01497699.00.19(0.07~0.51)
白细胞计数0.007
正常1261.01289299.01.00
异常351.6215598.41.67(1.15~2.43)
红细胞计数0.274
正常1171.11026498.91.00
异常440.9478399.10.82(0.58~1.17)
血红蛋白计数0.002
正常1170.91234699.11.00
异常441.6270198.41.72(1.21~2.43)
变量复发未复发HR(95%CI)值P
例数构成比(%)例数构成比(%)
血小板计数0.406
正常1481.01407699.01.00
异常131.397198.71.27(0.72~2.24)
中性粒细胞百分比0.728
正常1471.11361798.91.00
异常141.0143099.00.91(0.52~1.57)
淋巴细胞百分比0.021
正常1301.01307799.01.00
异常311.5197098.51.58(1.07~2.34)
单核细胞百分比0.720
正常1141.01083999.01.00
异常471.1420898.91.06(0.76~1.49)
丙氨酸氨基转移酶0.332
正常1431.11297798.91.00
异常180.9207099.10.78(048~1.28)
天冬氨酸氨基转移酶0.001
正常1220.91278499.11.00
异常391.7226398.31.81(1.26~2.60)
总胆红素0.552
正常1481.01401499.01.00
异常131.2103398.81.19(0.67~2.09)
直接胆红素0.043
正常1361.01345099.01.00
异常251.5159798.51.55(1.01~2.38)
间接胆红素0.172
正常40.11304899.91.00
异常20.1199999.93.26(0.60~17.81)
尿素氮<0.001
正常910.81142799.21.00
异常701.9362098.12.43(1.78~3.32)
空腹血糖0.229
正常1231.01206199.01.00
异常381.3298698.71.25(0.87~1.80)
尿酸<0.001
正常1041.5688598.51.00
异常570.7816299.30.47(0.34~0.64)
肌酐0.614
正常1141.01090499.01.00
异常471.1414398.91.09(0.78~1.53)

注 正常值范围:白细胞计数:(3.5~9.5)×109/L;红细胞计数:(3.8~5.1)×109/L;血红蛋白计数:130~175g/L;血小板计数:(125~350)×109/L;中性粒细胞百分比:40%~75%;淋巴细胞百分比:20%~50%;单核细胞百分比:3%~10%;丙氨酸氨基转移酶:9~50U/L;天冬氨酸氨基转移酶:15~40U/L;总胆红素:<23.0μmol/L;直接胆红素:<8.0μmol/L;间接胆红素:3.4~13.7μmol/L;尿素氮:3.1~8.0mmol/L;空腹血糖:3.89~6.11mmol/L;尿酸:208~428μmol/L;肌酐:57~97μmol/L。Inf表示为正无穷

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二、 肺结核复发的危险因素分析

1.肺结核复发的单因素分析(表1):本研究中共纳入15208例肺结核患者,其中女性的复发率显著低于男性,差异有统计学意义。高龄患者(>50岁)的复发率高于年龄低于50岁的患者,差异有统计学意义。本地户籍的肺结核患者复发率高于外地户籍。但少数民族对其复发率影响不大。发病时肺部有空洞的患者,复发率显著高于无空洞者,诊断时痰涂片阳性、治疗2个月末痰涂片阳性及培养阳性的患者复发率显著高于阴性患者,且差异均有统计学意义。对肺结核患者的治疗管理方式的不同,可以影响到肺结核患者的复发率,其中强化期督导的肺结核患者复发率显著低于全程督导,但患者自服药发生复发的风险则是全程督导的6.90倍。系统管理的肺结核患者其复发率则低于非系统管理的患者。合并糖尿病的患者复发率高于未合并者,且差异有统计学意义。此外,白细胞计数、血红蛋白计数、淋巴细胞百分比、天冬氨酸氨基转移酶、直接胆红素、血尿素氮水平异常可显著增加肺结核患者的复发风险;血尿酸异常则可显著降低肺结核患者的复发风险。

2.肺结核复发的多因素Cox回归模型分析:将单因素分析中差异有统计学意义的影响因素作为自变量,进行Cox回归模型和多因素分析,变量赋值见表2。结果显示,本地户籍(HR=1.56,95%CI:1.14~2.14,P=0.005)、诊断时痰涂片阳性(HR=2.92,95%CI:2.10~4.06,P<0.001)、治疗2个月末痰涂片阳性(HR=3.94,95%CI:2.41~6.47,P<0.001)、血红蛋白异常(HR=2.78,95%CI:1.32~5.83,P=0.007)、直接胆红素异常(HR=5.94,95%CI:3.13~11.79,P<0.001)、血尿素氮异常(HR=8.76,95%CI:5.00~15.36,P<0.001)是肺结核复发的独立危险因素;就诊间隔大于14d(HR=0.56,95%CI:0.40~0.78,P<0.001)、尿酸水平异常是肺结核复发的保护因素(HR=0.03,95%CI:0.01~0.05,P<0.001)。见表3

表2   Cox回归模型分析变量赋值表

变量赋值
性别男=1,女=2
本地户籍是=1,否=2
就诊间隔大于14d是=1,否=2
诊断时痰检结果涂阴=1,涂阳=2
治疗2个月末痰检结果涂阴=1,涂阳=2,其他=3
是否合并糖尿病是=1,否=2
血红蛋白正常=1,异常=2
直接胆红素正常=1,异常=2
天冬氨酸氨基转移酶正常=1,异常=2
尿素氮正常=1,异常=2
尿酸正常=1,异常=2

注 正常值范围:血红蛋白计数:130~175g/L;天冬氨酸氨基转移酶:15~40U/L;直接胆红素:<8.0μmol/L;尿素氮:3.1~8.0mmol/L;尿酸:208~428μmol/L

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表3   肺结核患者复发的多因素Cox分析

变量βsx¯Wald χ2aHR(95%CI)值P
性别(以男性为参照)
-0.370.2001.8400.69(0.47~1.02)0.066
本地户籍(以否为参照)
0.450.1612.7891.56(1.14~2.14)0.005
就诊间隔大于14天(以否为参照)
-0.580.1703.4160.56(0.40~0.78)<0.001
诊断时痰检结果(以涂阴为参照)
涂阳1.070.1686.3792.92(2.10~4.06)<0.001
治疗2个月末痰检结果(以涂阴为参照)
涂阳1.370.2525.4393.94(2.41~6.47)<0.001
其他0.610.3231.9451.83(1.00~3.39)0.052
是否合并糖尿病(以否为参照)
0.470.2721.7431.61(0.94~2.73)0.081
血红蛋白计数(以正常为参照)
异常1.020.3782.7022.78(1.32~5.83)0.007
直接胆红素(以正常为参照)
异常1.780.3285.4445.94(3.13~11.79)<0.001
天冬氨酸氨基转移酶(以正常为参照)
异常0.650.3531.8391.91(0.96~3.82)0.070
尿素氮(以正常为参照)
异常2.170.2867.5798.76(5.00~15.36)<0.001
尿酸(以正常为参照)
异常-3.660.32111.3900.03(0.01~0.05)<0.001

注 正常值范围:血红蛋白计数:130~175g/L;天冬氨酸氨基转移酶:15~40U/L;直接胆红素:<8.0μmol/L;尿素氮:3.1~8.0mmol/L;尿酸:208~428μmol/L

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讨论

在中国传染病疫情网络报告中,肺结核的发病和死亡一直居法定传染病的前几位[11],同时,肺结核的复发同样是结核病防控难点之一。本研究采用回顾性队列研究方法对佛山市肺结核患者复发情况进行探讨,结果显示,15208例肺结核患者中,有161例肺结核患者治愈或完成疗程后复发,复发率为1.06%。多因素Cox回归模型显示,男性复发率高于女性,与张屹立等[12]、戴志松等[13]研究结果一致,这可能与男女体内激素不同有关,也可能与女性患者在治疗过程中依从性更好,不良行为习惯(如吸烟、饮酒等)较少有关。本地户籍的肺结核患者复发率高于外地户籍,且差异有统计学意义,与戴志松等[13]的研究结果相一致,这可能是因为外地户籍患者流动性较大,复发后未在本地登记治疗而未被纳入统计所引起的偏倚。因此,应注意加强本地户籍及流动人口的肺结核健康管理。

本研究发现肺结核患者的自身健康状态可影响其肺结核复发的发生风险,本研究结果显示,合并糖尿病的肺结核患者复发率高于未合并者,此结果与魏建华等[14]的研究结果相一致,原因可能为很多糖尿病患者的生活习惯相对较差,同时其自身抵抗力可能会相对于健康人群低。同时,魏建华等[14]的研究结果显示,糖尿病患者血糖控制不理想者的肺结核复发率较高,营养状况差的糖尿病患者同样复发率较高,因此,在对糖尿病患者血糖控制方面,应适当放宽对饮食的控制,以保证其营养供应。此外,有研究表明,部分肺结核患者合并高血压和糖尿病等慢性非传染性疾病[15-16],而合并此类疾病的患者,可能会影响其肺结核复发。因此,我们应格外关注合并高血压、糖尿病等其他疾病的肺结核患者,对其所合并的疾病进行相应的健康管理,可减少其肺结核的复发率。

本研究发现,初次合并肺部空洞患者的复发率显著高于无空洞患者;患者诊断时痰涂片阳性患者复发率显著高于涂阴患者,此结果与Moosazadeh等[17]、地尔木拉提·吐孙等[18]的研究结果一致。由此可见,除了患者自身的健康状况会影响肺结核的复发率,患者初次患肺结核的严重程度同样会影响患者的复发率。治疗2个月末痰涂片阳性的患者肺结核复发率显著高于涂阴患者,这可能是因为此类患者的严重程度较高、病变范围更广,如不彻底根治,残存的结核分枝杆菌则成为其复发的根源,即内源性复发[19]。但因很多肺结核患者无明显症状,因此,要加强对肺结核知识的健康宣传,定期体检及出现咳嗽、咳痰超过2周等肺结核可疑症状时及时就医。早诊断、早治疗不但可以减少肺结核的传播,更可能减少此类肺结核患者的复发率。

此外,本研究的多因素Cox回归模型显示,尿酸水平异常是肺结核复发的保护因素。众所周知,尿酸水平异常与嘌呤代谢异常有关[20-21],而肉、海鲜等高蛋白饮食中嘌呤含量较高。因此,尿酸水平异常可能侧面显示患者经济条件相对较好,饮食营养丰富,身体抵抗力相对较强,从而减少了肺结核复发的风险。

综上所述,本地户籍、诊断时痰涂片阳性、治疗2个月末痰涂片阳性、血红蛋白异常、直接胆红素异常、血尿素氮异常是肺结核复发的独立危险因素。要针对肺结核复发的高危人群开展有效的干预措施,同时,关注肺结核患者的督导方式,加强对肺结核患者的管理,保证其规范治疗管理质量,可有利于减少肺结核的复发。

但本研究仍有一定的局限性:首先,因为权限问题,无法统计到外地复发后未在本市进行治疗的肺结核患者,因此存在一定的偏倚;其次,本研究中的一部分数据由于电话随访的局限性导致无法获得更多的信息。

利益冲突

所有作者均声明不存在利益冲突

作者贡献

钟倩红:酝酿和设计实验、起草文章、统计分析、获取研究经费、行政、技术或材料支持、指导;马晓慧:起草文章、统计分析;钟永辉、赵之梦:实施研究、采集数据;张锡林:酝酿和设计实验、行政、技术或材料支持、指导;许邦、罗洁莹、钟丽萍、戴磊:实施研究、采集数据

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