Abstract:

Objective To analyze the distribution characters of space-time specific incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Shaanxi Province and to provide scientific basis for strategies and measures development on TB control and prevention. Methods ArcGIS 10.7 software was used to create a geographic information database with counties (districts) as the unit, including regional code, longitude, latitude, population and incidence number. Numbers of permanent residents in Shaanxi were 37.64 million, 37.75 million, 37.93 million, 37.98 million and 38.83 million respectively from 2014 to 2018. There were 21596 cases, 21388 cases, 21355 cases, 22517 cases and 21442 cases reported in Shaanxi Province from 2014 to 2018. GeoDa 1.14.0 and SaTScan 9.6 were used for spatial and temporal aggregation analysis of tuberculosis incidence, and ArcGIS 10.7 software was used for geographic data processing and aggregation area display. Results The incidence of PTB in Shaanxi showed significant space clusters from 2014 to 2018. The Moran I index was 0.362, 0.516, 0.597, 0.562 and 0.484 respectively, and the Z value was 8.202, 11.441, 13.404, 12.850 and 10.843 respectively, all of the P values were 0.001. From 2014 to 2018, there were 15, 19, 18, 20 and 20 counties in “high-high” region, which were mainly in the north and south of Shaanxi, especially in Yulin and Ankang. By space-time analysis, the first level cluster was distributed in Ankang and 5 counties of bordering city. The second level cluster was mainly distributed in Yulin and 7 counties of Yan’an. Except for September to November of 2015, the first level clustering time was from January to April of each year. Conclusion The incidence of PTB has obvious space-time clustering in Shaanxi Province. The clustering time is in spring, and the clustering areas are mainly distributed in Yulin and Ankang city, which should be regarded as the key area for prevention and control.

Key words: Tuberculosis,pulmonary, Space-time clustering, Epidemiologic study characteristics as topic, Shaanxi province