Global burden of tuberculosis in children aged 0-14 years, 1990—2023, and trend projections for 2024—2050

doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20250432

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: To analyze the trend of global tuberculosis burden of children aged 0-14 years from 1990 to 2023, explore the correlation between social demographic index (SDI) and age, predict the burden change to 2050, and provide the basis for the World Health Organization (WHO) strategy of “ending tuberculosis epidemic” in 2035. Methods: Based on the global burden of disease (GBD) research data from 1990 to 2023, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to analyze the time trend of incidence rate, mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) of children’s tuberculosis; Using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, predict the disease burden until 2050. Results: From 1990 to 2023, the incidence, death and DALYs of tuberculosis in children aged 0 to 14 years in the world decreased by 45.06%, 67.05% and 65.13% respectively, the age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 133.01/100000 to 63.18/100000, the age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 11.61/100000 to 3.50/100000, the age standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) decreased from 1074.08/100000 to 341.96/100000, EAPC The range is -3.92%--2.38% (P<0.001). In 2023, low SDI areas will account for 76.85% (51328.34/66789.10) of child tuberculosis deaths, and their ASMR (7.71/100000) will be 85.67 times that of high SDI areas (0.09/100000); Children under the age of 5 have the highest number of deaths, with 48452.88 cases, and their ASMR (7.54/100000) is much higher than that of children aged 5-9 (1.33/100000). ARIMA model predicts that the global ASIR of children’s tuberculosis in 2050 will be 36.83/100000, ASMR will be 1.39/100000, and ASDR will be 142.34/100000. Conclusion: Despite substantial global declines in the childhood TB burden from 1990 to 2023, significant inequalities remain, concentrated in low-SDI regions and among children under 5 years. Achieving the 2035 “End TB” target necessitates targeted scaling up of child-friendly diagnostics, expanded preventive therapy, and precise interventions for MDR-TB.

Key words: Child, Tuberculosis, Burden of disease, Forecasting

CLC Number:

R521

Liu Lin, Yin Xiaocheng, Zhang Xiaofo, Liang Linlong, Yang Ju. Global burden of tuberculosis in children aged 0-14 years, 1990—2023, and trend projections for 2024—2050[J]. Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis, 2026, 48(6): 840-848. doi: 10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20250432

Figures/Tables 6

References 37

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分组	发病			死亡			DALYs
	ASIR(/10万)		EAPC (%)	ASMR(/10万)		EAPC (%)	ASDR(/10万)		EAPC (%)
	1990年	2023年	EAPC (%)	1990年	2023年	EAPC (%)	1990年	2023年	EAPC (%)
全球	133.01	63.18	―2.38	11.61	3.50	―3.92	1074.08	341.96	―3.75
性别
女性	163.48	74.37	―2.51	12.30	3.58	―4.17	1151.79	356.15	―3.98
男性	104.13	52.64	―2.21	10.95	3.43	―3.65	1000.48	328.59	―3.52
年龄组(岁)
<5	145.14	76.43	―2.18	24.16	7.54	―3.86	2211.04	714.26	―3.76
5~9	119.57	50.03	―2.69	5.20	1.33	―4.25	516.28	151.63	―3.85
10~14	133.90	62.49	―2.38	4.47	1.33	―3.86	403.63	130.64	―3.63
SDI水平
低	280.06	116.89	―2.74	26.89	7.71	―4.00	2468.32	739.47	―3.87
中低	186.06	57.76	―3.91	16.53	2.64	―5.79	1527.11	267.42	―5.53
中	121.21	55.10	―2.33	9.77	1.52	―5.60	911.07	159.79	―5.26
中高	89.64	37.10	―2.75	5.78	0.92	―5.78	545.93	100.05	―5.35
高	34.97	7.54	―4.81	1.94	0.09	―9.53	183.96	11.89	―8.68