Abstract: Objective Application of birth cohort analysis to explore the distribution of the bacteriological positive pulmonary TB and to provide the evidence for high-risk groups. Methods Data were collected from the third and the fourth national TB epidemiological surveys, relevant database was set up. A total of 1 461 190 people were investigated in the third survey. 2389 bacteriological positive pulmonary TB patients were found, among which 1537 of male and 852 of female patients. In the fourth survey, a total of 365 097 people were investigated. 584 bacteriological positive pulmonary TB patients were found, including 411 of male 173 of female patients. The distribution of the bacteriological positive pulmonary TB was analyzed by negative binomial regression and correspondence analysis. Results (1) The correspondence analysis graph showed that the earlier-birth cohort, male were correlated with high prevalence of bacteriological positive pulmonary TB. (2)Negative binomial regression analysis showed that the risk of bacteriological positive pulmonary TB was associated with sex and birth cohort. The risk of TB in earlier-birth group was 1.557 (95% CI:1.443-1.692) times of the adjacent later group. The prevalence of bacteriological positive pulmonary TB was related to sex, higher in male, the risk was 1.992 (95%CI:1.415-2.807) times in male than female. Conclusion The birth cohort analysis could be used to explore the distribution of the bacteriological positive pulmonary TB and to provide the evidence for high-risk groups. The results of analysis indicated that male and earlier-birth cohort group was high-risk groups of bacteriological positive pulmonary TB.

Key words: Tuberculosis,pulmonary/epidemiology, Prevalence, Cohort studies, China