Abstract: Objective To calculate and predict the age distribution of infection with M.tuberclsis among the population in Beijing on the basis of available tuberculosis epidemic data.Methods Firstly calculating the risk of tuberculous infection for specific years according to the data of tuberculous infection, secondly establishing the mathematical relationship between the risk of tuberculous infection and the correspandine epidemic situation data with a mathematical model, thirdly calculating the risk of tuberculous infection of the other years with the model, and finally calculating the age distribution of infection among the population in Beijing. Result There was a linear regression relationship between the risk of tuberculous infection and the logarithm of registry rate of new tuberculosis patients. The prevalence of tuberculous infection among the population of Beijing in 1998, 2020 and 2040 was 44.23%、17.04% and 5.41% respectively.Conclusion Age distribution of tuberculous infection of specific population could be calculated by a mathematical model on the basis of specific data.

Key words: Tuberculous infection, Mathematical model, Beijing