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Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis ›› 2007, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (2): 130-132.

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The dynamic evaluation model for prediction the result of chemotherapy in new smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases

Jiang Li,Zhong Qiu,Huang Guiqing,et al.   

  1. Anti-tuberculosis research institute of Guangdong Province,Guangzhou 510630,China
  • Online:2007-02-10 Published:2007-11-03

Abstract: Objective To explore a dynamic evaluation model for prediction the result of chemotherapy in new smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases. Methods The case-control study and mathematical statistic were used to analyze 118 new smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases who were registered in 2005 to develop Logistic regression mode. Results The logistic analysis was used to make the dynamic evaluation model for prediction the result of chemotherapy in new smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases.The mode is ln (p/1-p)=4.135-3.963·Z3-2.319·Z11-3.686·Z13-2.058·Z14,and the accuracy of the model is up to 79.2%. Conclusion The model provides a reliable method for the dispensary to evaluate and predict the work of tuberculosis control in Guangdong province.

Key words: Pulmonary tuberculosis/chemotherapy, Prediction Model