Abstract:

Objective To analyze the case-detection trend of tuberculosis (TB) patients in the extremely severe or severe disaster areas in Mianyang City, Sichuan Province in the past 10 years since the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake.Methods The related data and information of the TB patients, who were registered in the TB facilities in 9 counties or districts of Mianyang city (including 5 severe disaster areas: Fucheng, Youxian, Santai, Zitong and Yanting; and 4 extremely severe disaster areas: Pingwu, Beichuan, An County and Jiangyou) from 2008 to 2017, were collected and analyzed retrospectively. The following indicators were analyzed and compared by extremely severe disaster areas and severe disaster areas: the reported incidence of pulmonary TB, the source of active TB patients, and the long-term changing trend.Results In 2008, the reported incidence of pulmonary TB was 83.10/10000 (1380/1660700) and 86.47/10000 (3122/3610500) respectively in the extremely severe disaster areas and severe disaster areas. The difference of the incidence between the two areas was not statistically significant (χ ²=1.52, P=0.223). After earthquake, in the extremely severe disaster areas, the reported incidence of pulmonary TB was 91.24/10000 (1516/1661500), 86.33/10000 (1439/1666900), 95.30/10000 (1466/1538300), 89.36/10000 (1341/1500700), 86.20/10000 (1295/1502300), 84.22/10000 (1271/1509100), 85.01/10000 (1288/1515100) and 77.57/10000 (1202/1549500) respectively from 2009 to 2016; which were all significantly higher than those in the severe disaster areas: 83.79/10000 (3050/3639900), 76.30/10000 (2780/3643400), 84.48/10000 (2724/3224500), 74.99/10000 (2494/3225800), 80.50/10000 (2514/3122900), 76.14/10000 (2419/3177000), 75.20/10000 (2369/3150100) and 72.00/10000 (2320/3222400); χ ² was 7.36, 14.15, 13.87, 26.88, 4.00, 8.49, 12.56 and 4.41 respectively, and P values were all<0.05. In 2017, the reported incidence of pulmonary TB in the extremely severe disaster areas was 77.45/10000 (1210/1562200), which was close to that in the severe disaster areas (72.68/10000, 2361/3248700), and χ ²=3.25, P=0.073.Conclusion The incidence of TB in Mianyang city is high, and earthquake has a long-term impact on case-detection of TB. The role of the three-level network (county, township and village levels) on TB prevention and control should be restored and strengthened as soon as possible; the active and effective TB screening and prevention work should be carried out.

Key words: Earthquakes, Tuberculosis, Incidence, Data interpretation, statistical, Small-area analysis, Mianyang city