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中国防痨杂志 ›› 2022, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1): 4-8.doi: 10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20210662

• 指南·规范·共识 • 上一篇    下一篇


中国医学科学院病原生物学研究所, 中国疾病预防控制中心, 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所   

  • 收稿日期:2021-11-20 出版日期:2022-01-10 发布日期:2021-12-29
  • 基金资助:

Expert consensus on the estimation of the national burden on latent tuberculosis infection

Institute of Pathogen Biology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College , Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Union Medical Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences   

  • Received:2021-11-20 Online:2022-01-10 Published:2021-12-29
  • Supported by:
    National Science and Technology Major Project during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period(2013ZX10003004-002);National Science and Technology Major Project during the Thirteenth Five-year Plan Period(2017ZX10201302002);CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences(2021-I2M-1-037)


针对结核分枝杆菌潜伏感染高危人群开展预防性治疗是降低结核病发病率的直接手段,也是实现终结结核病流行(End TB)全球战略目标的重要组成部分。作为结核病高负担国家,我国如何通过开展结核分枝杆菌潜伏感染人群的预防干预,实现结核病发病率快速下降的目标,值得探讨。其中,准确掌握我国的结核分枝杆菌潜伏感染负担和流行特征是讨论策略可行性和科学性的前提。在缺乏全国范围的结核分枝杆菌潜伏感染流行病学调查的背景下,中国医学科学院病原生物学研究所和中国疾病预防控制中心联合中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,以全国结核病报告发病率为辅助变量,利用多中心的基于γ-干扰素释放试验检测的结核分枝杆菌潜伏感染流行病学调查数据和小样本空间统计模型,开展了全国结核分枝杆菌潜伏感染率的估算。结果显示,2013年我国5周岁及以上人群结核分枝杆菌潜伏感染率为18.1%(95%CI:13.7%~22.4%);15周岁及以上人群结核分枝杆菌潜伏感染率为20.3%(95%CI:15.6%~25.1%),呈现随着年龄升高而增长的趋势,同年龄段内男性高于女性。领域内专家针对估算结果进行了广泛论证并形成了《全国结核分枝杆菌潜伏感染率估算专家共识》,以供我国结核病防治工作者借鉴和参考。

关键词: 分枝杆菌,结核, 传染病潜伏期, 预防和防护用药, 模型,统计学


Preventive treatment for high-risk population with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is an effective tool to reduce the incidence rate of tuberculosis (TB), and also an important strategy for achieving the global goals of the End TB Strategy. As a high burden country of TB, how to achieve the goal of rapid decline in TB incidence by carrying out LTBI treatment is worth exploring in China. First of all, accurately mastering the burden and epidemic characteristics of LTBI in China is the premise to discuss the feasibility and scientific of the strategy. In the absence of nationwide epidemiological investigation of LTBI, the LTBI burden in China was estimated by small sample spatial statistical model based on the epidemiological LTBI survey data of interferon-gamma release assay and the nationwide incidence of reported TB. The results showed, in 2013, the prevalence of LTBI in people aged 5 years old and above was 18.1% (95%CI: 13.7%-22.4%) and in people aged 15 years old and above was 20.3% (95%CI: 15.6%-25.1%), respectively. The LTBI prevalence showed a trend of increasing with age and it was significantly higher in men than that in women at the same age group. Experts in the field have extensively demonstrated the results and formed the Expert consensus on the estimation of the national burden on latent tuberculosis infection as reference for improving Chinese TB control.

Key words: Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Infectious disease incubation period, Protective agents, Models,statistical