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中国防痨杂志 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (8): 853-856.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6621.2021.08.019

• 短篇论著 • 上一篇    

2011—2020年福建省肺结核发病时空特征分析

周银发, 林淑芳, 戴志松, 魏淑贞, 陈代权()   

  1. 350001 福州,福建省疾病预防控制中心结核病防治科
  • 收稿日期:2021-05-06 出版日期:2021-08-10 发布日期:2021-07-30
  • 通信作者: 陈代权 E-mail:fjcdccdq@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    福建省卫生健康科技计划项目(2018-1-24);福建省卫生健康科技计划项目(2019-ZQN-28)

Temporal-spatial distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in Fujian Province during 2011—2020

ZHOU Yin-fa, LIN Shu-fang, DAI Zhi-song, Wei Shu-zhen, CHEN Dai-quan()   

  1. Department of Tuberculosis Prevention and Control, Fujian Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou 350001, China
  • Received:2021-05-06 Online:2021-08-10 Published:2021-07-30
  • Contact: CHEN Dai-quan E-mail:fjcdccdq@163.com

摘要:

为分析2011—2020年福建省肺结核发病时空分布特征,笔者通过《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》子系统《传染病监测系统》法定传染病监测报表,以县(市、区)级为单位分年度收集福建省传染病报告卡审核日期为2011—2020年的所有临床诊断和确诊的活动性肺结核及结核性胸膜炎患者信息,并应用SPSS 24.0软件、ArcGIS 10.2软件、空间关联局部指标(LISA)聚类图、SaTScan 9.6软件计算活动性肺结核及结核性胸膜炎报告发病率,以及进行了全局和局部空间自相关聚集性分析(Moran’s I指数和Getis-Ord G及Getis-Ord Gi*指数)、可视化热点分析、发病区域时空扫描。结果发现,2011—2020年福建省肺结核报告发病率[从2011年的60.6/10万(22374/3690万)降低至2020年的45.0/10万(17860/3973万)]总体呈下降趋势(χ2趋势=1496.216, P<0.05)。全局年均Moran’s I指数(I=0.292,Z=3.936,P<0.01)和Getis-Ord G指数(G=0.000,Z=2.124,P=0.034)显示福建省肺结核发病率存在空间聚集性;局部空间自相关分析发现22个局部空间聚集区域(包括11个高-高聚集区、8个低-低聚集区、2个低-高聚集区及1个高-低聚集区),局部Getis-Ord Gi*指数显示存在24个“热点”区域(包含6个“负热点”区域和18个“正热点”区域)。时空扫描分析结果显示聚集区域及分级均有所减少,仍存在肺结核发病空间聚集性及聚集程度较高的特点,2011年和2012年有28个县(市、区)出现了聚集,共有5个级别聚集区域;而2018年有18个县(市、区)出现了聚集,有3个级别聚集区域。

关键词: 结核,肺, 流行病学研究, 时空聚类分析, 福建

Abstract:

In order to analyze the temporal-spatial distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Fujian Province, the information of patients diagnosed with active PTB and tuberculous pleurisy in Fujian Province from 2011 to 2020 were collected from the Infectious Disease Surveillance System, a subsystem of China Disease Control and Prevention Information System. The incidence of the PTB, global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis (Moran’s I index, Getis-Ord G and Getis-Ord Gi* index), visual hotspot analysis and temporal-spatial scanning analysis were implemented by SPSS 24.0, ArcGIS 10.2, local indicators of spatial association (LISA) cluster diagram and SaTScan 9.6 software. The incidence of PTB reported in Fujian decreased from 60.6/100000 (22374/36900000) in 2011 to 45.0/100000 in 2020 (17860/39730000) (χ2trend=1496.216, P<0.05). Annual Global Moran’s I (I=0.292, Z=3.936, P<0.01) and Getis-Ord General G (G=0.000, Z=2.124, P=0.034) index indicated that the incidence of PTB reported in Fujian was somehow clustered. Twenty-two local spatial cluster areas were showed in the LISA cluster diagram, including 11 high-high, 8 low-low, 2 low-high and 1 high-low cluster areas. Local Getis-Ord Gi* index presented that there were 24 “hot spots” regions, including 6 “negative hot spots” and 18 “positive hot spots”. The temporal-spatial scanning analysis showed that the cluster areas and classification were reduced, but the spatial cluster was still obvious. In addition, there were 5 levels of cluster areas in 2011 and 2012, involving 28 counties; while only 3 levels were found in 2018, involving 18 counties.

Key words: Tuberculosis,pulmonary, Epidemiologic studies, Temporal-spatial clustering, Fujian Province