2009—2020年合肥市肺结核空间特征分析

doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20220159

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 分析2009—2020年合肥市肺结核疫情特征及空间聚集性。方法: 通过收集“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”的子系统“结核病管理信息系统”中合肥市2009—2020年肺结核数据,筛选出肺结核患者42681例,利用GeoDa和Arcgis 10.8空间分析软件进行分析,在街道/乡镇水平上绘制空间分布地图,探索空间分布规律及肺结核发病冷热点地区。结果: 2009—2020年合肥市肺结核共报告42681例,报告发病率从2009年57.96/10万(4195/7237966)下降到2020年31.04/10万(2908/9369881),整体呈现波动下降趋势($\chi _{趋势}^{2}$=12.531,P<0.001);全局空间自相关结果显示2009—2014年合肥市肺结核发病呈现空间自相关性(Moran’s I值均>0,P值均<0.05);2015—2020年空间分布偏向随机性。局部自相关分析显示高-高聚集发病街道/乡镇主要集中在长丰县、肥东县;低-低聚集区主要集中在老城区(庐阳区、包河区)。冷热点分析发现,热点区域有2个,分布在长丰县义井乡和肥西县严店乡。结论: 合肥市肺结核疫情存在一定的聚集性,后续应针对不同的县(区)街道/乡镇特点采取不同的防控措施,加大高-高聚集区的街道和热点区域的防控力度。

关键词: 结核,肺, 时空聚类分析, 数据说明,统计, 合肥市

Abstract:

Objective: To analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases in Hefei City from 2009 to 2020. Methods: The information of 42681 PTB patients who were recorded in The TB Management Information System (a sub-system of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System) in Hefei City from 2009 to 2020 was obtained. A case spatial distribution map of the street/township level was drawn with GeoDa and Arcgis 10.8 spatial analysis software, to explore the spatial distribution pattern and cold/hot spot areas of PTB. Results: A total of 42681 PTB cases were notified in Hefei City from 2009 to 2020, the incidence decreased from 57.96/100000 (4195/7237966) in 2009 to 31.04/100000 (2908/9369881) in 2020 and showed a fluctuating decreasing trend ($\chi _{\text{trend}}^{2}$=12.531,P<0.001). The result of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was spatial autocorrelation of PTB incidence in Hefei City from 2009 to 2014, the Moran’s I values were all greater than 0, P values were all <0.05. The spatial distribution from 2015 to 2020 trended to be random. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the high-high clustered incidences were mainly concentrated in Changfeng County and Feidong County. Low-low clustered areas were mainly concentrated in the main urban areas (Luyang District, Baohe District). The analysis of cold/hot spot showed that there were two hot spots, which were distributed in Yijing township of Changfeng County and Yandian Township of Feixi County. Conclusion: The PTB epidemic in Hefei City has a certain degree of aggregation, so different prevention and control measures should be taken according to characteristics of different counties, districts, streets and towns, and the prevention and control efforts should be strengthened in the high-high clustered streets and hot spot areas.

Key words: Tuberculosis,pulmonary, Space-time clustering, Data interpretation,statistical, Hefei

中图分类号:

R521

聂廷月, 陈伟, 张洁莹, 曹红, 钱冰, 顾颖强, 刘旭祥. 2009—2020年合肥市肺结核空间特征分析[J]. 中国防痨杂志, 2022, 44(9): 947-953. doi: 10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20220159

Nie Tingyue, Chen Wei, Zhang Jieying, Cao Hong, Qian Bing, Gu Yingqiang, Liu Xuxiang. Analysis of spatial distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Hefei City, 2009—2020[J]. Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis, 2022, 44(9): 947-953. doi: 10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20220159

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年份	发病例数	常住人口 (名)	发病率 (/10万)
2009	4195	7237966	57.96
2010	3931	7450698	52.76
2011	3695	7520000	49.14
2012	3728	7570000	49.25
2013	3858	7610000	50.70
2014	3845	7582726	50.71
2015	3622	7963767	45.48
2016	3326	7863714	42.30
2017	3193	8205044	38.91
2018	3322	8088000	41.07
2019	3058	8189000	37.34
2020	2908	9369881	31.04
合计	42681	94650796	45.09

年份	1月	2月	3月	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	10月	11月	12月
2009	208	337	345	367	330	400	342	352	366	417	337	394
2010	304	232	400	427	374	326	330	297	311	306	371	253
2011	240	185	384	303	365	275	262	279	286	268	395	453
2012	189	242	373	341	379	402	278	279	234	277	370	364
2013	261	211	361	388	357	317	376	291	364	274	329	329
2014	335	204	334	344	357	339	322	324	416	305	285	280
2015	310	225	379	367	329	334	297	296	289	271	227	298
2016	222	207	315	287	307	275	289	309	296	221	302	296
2017	248	190	308	280	282	287	268	249	286	243	259	293
2018	258	138	289	302	265	309	336	313	300	287	261	264
2019	244	176	242	274	288	288	277	252	227	263	227	300
2020	174	115	232	255	274	289	262	265	306	240	259	237
合计	2993	2462	3962	3935	3907	3841	3639	3506	3681	3372	3622	3761

年份	Moran’s I值	Z值	P值
2009	0.529	10.643	0.001
2010	0.301	6.180	0.001
2011	0.235	4.809	0.001
2012	0.342	6.994	0.001
2013	0.235	4.875	0.001
2014	0.146	3.216	0.002
2015	0.041	1.093	0.125
2016	0.022	0.741	0.219
2017	-0.001	0.405	0.405
2018	-0.015	-0.181	0.447
2019	0.035	0.968	0.162
2020	-0.007	0.802	0.459