关键词: 结核,肺, 流行病学研究, 小地区分析, 数据说明,统计, 空间自相关

Abstract:

Objective To investigate changes of epidemiological characteristics and spatial aggregation of tuberculosis in Xinjiang.Methods Data of tuberculosis incidence reported in Xinjiang from January 2008 to December 2018 were obtained through China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Then distribution features were described and the epidemic curve and incidence map were drawn. The spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to calculate the Moran’s I value and draw the aggregation map of spatial correlation local index (LISA).Results From 2008 to 2018, a total of 479946 cases of tuberculosis were reported in Xinjiang. The male to female ratio was 1.16 (257337/222609).Age composition was mainly over 55 years old, accounting for 56.82% (272701/479946) of all cases. Occupation distribution was dominated by farmers, accounting for 70.61%(338890/479946). The reported incidences of tuberculosis were rising from 202.93/100000 to 304.94/100000 between 2008 and 2018, the chi-square test showed statistically significant differences ( {\chi }_{\mathrm{frequency}}^2 =19507.491,P<0.001). Except for the peak in July of 2018 (35.29/100000, 8628/24446713), the annual distribution peak of reported incidence in the months of 2008-2017 were always from January to March, ranging from 17.64/100000-25.06/100000 (3897/22087038-5339/21307980). The reported incidence rates in four prefectures of southern Xinjiang (kashgar, kezhou, aksu and hetian) were higher than other regions. In particular, the highest was in the county of Yingjisha in Kashgar prefecture (720.56/100000). Reported incidence rates presented spatial aggregation from 2008 to 2018, and the test showed statistically significant differences (Moran’s I=0.696,Z=11.462,P<0.001).There were a total of 17 high-high clustering areas, which were located in most counties in the four prefectures of southern Xinjiang. Conclusion Men and farmers are the key population for the prevention and control of tuberculosis, and southern Xinjiang is the key area for the prevention and control of tuberculosis in Xinjiang.

Key words: Tuberculosis,pulmonary, Epidemiological studies, Small-area analysis, Data interpretation, Statistical spatial autocorrelation