关键词: 儿童, 结核,肺, 发病率, 模型,统计学

Abstract:

Objective: To analyze the changes in the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in China’s 0-10-year-old population in terms of age, period, and cohort. Methods: By collecting the incidence data of tuberculosis reported to the Chinese Public Health Science Data Center from 2004 to 2018, the age period cohort (APC) model was used to analyze the impact of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of tuberculosis among the 0-10 years old population in China. Results: From 2004 to 2018, the annual average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the whole population of China and the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in people aged 0 to 10 years showed a downward trend, decreasing from 74.64/100000 and 8.14/100000 in 2004 to 59.27/100000 and 1.22/100000 in 2018, respectively (χ_trend²=211.469, P=0.001; χ_trend²=210.018, P=0.001). The APC model analysis showed that age-period-cohort had a significant impact on the tuberculosis incidence of 0-10 years old population. The cross-sectional age specific incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis decreased from 6.12/100000 to 1.06/100000 with the increase of age (χ_trend²=89.765, P=0.013); The incidence risk decreased with time, and the RR value decreased from 0.97 to 0.14; The later the birth cohort, the lower the risk of onset, and the RR value decreased from 6.38 to 0.15. Conclusion: The risk of tuberculosis incidence in the 0-10 age group was decreasing as the cross-sectional age, period, and cohort continued to advance, which showed that the effect of tuberculosis vaccination and preventive control was significant, but there is still a need to strengthen the dissemination of tuberculosis knowledge and enhance tuberculosis surveillance.

Key words: Child, Tuberculosis, pulmonary, Incidence, Models, statistical