Email Alert | RSS    帮助

中国防痨杂志 ›› 2022, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (9): 947-953.doi: 10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20220159

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇


聂廷月1, 陈伟2, 张洁莹2, 曹红2, 钱冰2, 顾颖强2, 刘旭祥1,3()   

  1. 1安徽医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,合肥 230032
    2合肥市疾病预防控制中心结核病防治科,合肥 230001
    3合肥市疾病预防控制中心应急办公室,合肥 230001
  • 收稿日期:2022-04-28 出版日期:2022-09-10 发布日期:2022-09-05
  • 通信作者: 刘旭祥

Analysis of spatial distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Hefei City, 2009—2020

Nie Tingyue1, Chen Wei2, Zhang Jieying2, Cao Hong2, Qian Bing2, Gu Yingqiang2, Liu Xuxiang1,3()   

  1. 1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China
    2Department of Tuberculosis Prevention, Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230001, China
    3Department of Emergency Management Office,Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230001, China
  • Received:2022-04-28 Online:2022-09-10 Published:2022-09-05
  • Contact: Liu Xuxiang


目的: 分析2009—2020年合肥市肺结核疫情特征及空间聚集性。方法: 通过收集“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”的子系统“结核病管理信息系统”中合肥市2009—2020年肺结核数据,筛选出肺结核患者42681例,利用GeoDa和Arcgis 10.8空间分析软件进行分析,在街道/乡镇水平上绘制空间分布地图,探索空间分布规律及肺结核发病冷热点地区。结果: 2009—2020年合肥市肺结核共报告42681例,报告发病率从2009年57.96/10万(4195/7237966)下降到2020年31.04/10万(2908/9369881),整体呈现波动下降趋势($\chi _{趋势}^{2}$=12.531,P<0.001);全局空间自相关结果显示2009—2014年合肥市肺结核发病呈现空间自相关性(Moran’s I值均>0,P值均<0.05);2015—2020年空间分布偏向随机性。局部自相关分析显示高-高聚集发病街道/乡镇主要集中在长丰县、肥东县;低-低聚集区主要集中在老城区(庐阳区、包河区)。冷热点分析发现,热点区域有2个,分布在长丰县义井乡和肥西县严店乡。结论: 合肥市肺结核疫情存在一定的聚集性,后续应针对不同的县(区)街道/乡镇特点采取不同的防控措施,加大高-高聚集区的街道和热点区域的防控力度。

关键词: 结核,肺, 时空聚类分析, 数据说明,统计, 合肥市


Objective: To analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases in Hefei City from 2009 to 2020. Methods: The information of 42681 PTB patients who were recorded in The TB Management Information System (a sub-system of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System) in Hefei City from 2009 to 2020 was obtained. A case spatial distribution map of the street/township level was drawn with GeoDa and Arcgis 10.8 spatial analysis software, to explore the spatial distribution pattern and cold/hot spot areas of PTB. Results: A total of 42681 PTB cases were notified in Hefei City from 2009 to 2020, the incidence decreased from 57.96/100000 (4195/7237966) in 2009 to 31.04/100000 (2908/9369881) in 2020 and showed a fluctuating decreasing trend ($\chi _{\text{trend}}^{2}$=12.531,P<0.001). The result of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was spatial autocorrelation of PTB incidence in Hefei City from 2009 to 2014, the Moran’s I values were all greater than 0, P values were all <0.05. The spatial distribution from 2015 to 2020 trended to be random. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the high-high clustered incidences were mainly concentrated in Changfeng County and Feidong County. Low-low clustered areas were mainly concentrated in the main urban areas (Luyang District, Baohe District). The analysis of cold/hot spot showed that there were two hot spots, which were distributed in Yijing township of Changfeng County and Yandian Township of Feixi County. Conclusion: The PTB epidemic in Hefei City has a certain degree of aggregation, so different prevention and control measures should be taken according to characteristics of different counties, districts, streets and towns, and the prevention and control efforts should be strengthened in the high-high clustered streets and hot spot areas.

Key words: Tuberculosis,pulmonary, Space-time clustering, Data interpretation,statistical, Hefei