2011—2020年四川省肺结核发病年龄变化趋势分析

doi:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20220085

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 分析四川省2011—2020年各年龄段人群肺结核流行特征与变化趋势。方法: 通过《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》子系统《传染病报告信息管理系统》及《基本信息系统》收集四川省2011—2020年的肺结核患者报告发病数据和人口数据,利用JoinPoint回归模型进行趋势性分析。结果: 四川省2011—2020年共计报告肺结核患者56.73万例,报告发病率(简称“发病率”)从2011年的81.14/10万(65250例)下降至2020年的55.19/10万(46218例),年递降率为4.19%,标化发病率呈下降趋势[年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)和平均变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)均为-4.0%(95%CI:-4.7%~-3.3%)]。平均发病年龄从2011年的44.19岁逐年升至2020年的45.45岁,每年增加0.104岁(β=0.104,P=0.008)。10年年均发病率最高的为≥65岁组(96.94/10万,99961例),发病率年龄高峰从2011年的≥65岁(113.08/10万,9694例)前移至2020年的15~24岁(89.77/10万,8688例)。25岁及以上人群发病率呈下降趋势,25~34、35~44、45~54、55~64、≥65岁组的发病率分别从2011年的87.83/10万(8855例)、77.89/10万(12596例)、97.37/10万(9778例)、121.07/10万(11308例)和113.08/10万(9694例)下降至2020年的62.85/10万(6663例)、40.57/10万(4754例)、58.23/10万(8376例)、62.67/10万(6543例)和73.43/10万(9686例),AAPC分别为-4.5%(95%CI:-7.8%~-1.1%)、-7.7%(95%CI:-8.9%~-6.6%)、-4.9%(95%CI:-8.9%~-0.8%)、-6.8%(95%CI:-8.0%~-5.6%)和-4.6%(95%CI:-5.8%~-3.4%)。2015—2020年0~14岁儿童的发病率呈上升趋势[2015年发病率为6.96/10万(923例),2020年发病率为10.98/10万(1508例)],APC为9.2%(95%CI:4.1%~14.4%)。结论: 四川省肺结核疫情近年总体下降,但25岁以下儿童和青少年肺结核发病率呈上升趋势,应引起高度重视,同时还应关注65岁及以上老年人肺结核发病情况。

关键词: 结核,肺, 发病率, 年龄分布, 数据说明,统计

Abstract:

Objective: To analyze the epidemic characteristics and trends of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in different age groups in Sichuan from 2011 to 2020. Methods: The reported incidence data and population data of PTB patients in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2020 were collected through the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System and Basic Information System, the subsystem of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and the trend analysis was carried out using the JoinPoint regression model. Results: From 2011 to 2020, 567300 PTB cases were reported in Sichuan. The reported incidence rate decreased from 81.14/100000 (65250 cases) in 2011 to 55.19/100000 (46218 cases) in 2020 with the annual decreasing rate of 4.19%, the standardized incidence rate showed a downward trend (annual percent change, APC), the APC and average annual percent change (AAPC) both were -4.0% (95%CI: -4.7%--3.3%). The average onset age increased from 44.19 years in 2011 to 45.45 years in 2020 with increasement of 0.104 years every year (β=0.104, P=0.008). During the 10 years, the incidence rate of PTB was the highest in people aged 65 or above (96.94/100000, 99961 cases). The peak age of incidence rate moved from 65 years (113.08/100000, 9694 cases) in 2011 to 15-24 years (89.77/100000, 8688 cases) in 2020. The incidence rate of people aged 25 and above showed a downward trend. The incidence rates of 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65 years and above decreased from 87.83/100000 (8855 cases), 77.89/100000 (12596 cases), 97.37/100000 (9778 cases), 121.07/100000 (11308 cases) and 113.08/100000 (9694 cases), respectively in 2011 to 62.85/100000 (6663 cases), 40.57/100000 (4754 cases), 58.23/100000 (8376 cases), 62.67/100000 (6543 cases) and 73.43/100000 (9686 cases), respectively in 2020. The AAPCs were -4.5% (95%CI: -7.8%--1.1%), -7.7% (95%CI: -8.9%--6.6%), -4.9% (95%CI: -8.9%--0.8%), -6.8% (95%CI: -8.0%--5.6%) and -4.6% (95%CI: -5.8%--3.4%), respectively. The incidence rate of children aged 0-14 years increased from 6.96/100000 (923 cases) in 2015 to 10.98/100000 (1508 cases) in 2020 with the APC of 9.2% (95%CI: 4.1%-14.4%). Conclusion: Although the incidence of PTB in Sichuan Province has been decreasing, the incidence rate of children and adolescents under 25 years old has been increasing in recent years, comprehensive prevention and control measures should be taken. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the elderly people.

Key words: Tuberculosis, pulmonary, Incidence, Age distribution, Data interpretation, statistical

中图分类号:

R521

李婷, 刘双, 逯嘉, 王丹霞, 夏岚. 2011—2020年四川省肺结核发病年龄变化趋势分析[J]. 中国防痨杂志, 2022, 44(8): 808-814. doi: 10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20220085

Li Ting, Liu Shuang, Lu Jia, Wang Danxia, Xia Lan. Analysis on the trend of age change of pulmonary tuberculosis in Sichuan from 2011 to 2020[J]. Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis, 2022, 44(8): 808-814. doi: 10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20220085

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年份	平均发病年龄(岁)			发病情况
	男性	女性	合计	男性				女性			合计
	男性	女性	合计				发病数 (例)	人口数 (百万)		发病率 (/10万)	发病数 (例)		人口数 (百万)	发病率 (/10万)	发病数 (例)	人口数 (百万)	发病率 (/10万)
2011	45.68	40.63	44.19	46 015	40.83	112.7		19 235	39.59	48.59		65250	80.42	81.14
2012	46.35	41.05	44.77	45 204	40.87	110.61		19 272	39.63	48.63		64476	80.50	80.09
2013	46.37	41.45	44.83	43 092	41.00	105.09		19 697	39.76	49.54		62789	80.76	77.75
2014	46.73	41.71	45.2	40 680	40.93	99.39		17 915	40.14	44.63		58595	81.07	72.28
2015	46.94	41.95	45.4	39 473	40.34	97.86		17 662	41.07	43.01		57135	81.40	70.19
2016	46.78	42.02	45.33	39 176	41.20	95.09		17 244	40.84	42.22		56420	82.04	68.77
2017	46.59	41.65	45.07	38 090	41.69	91.37		16 941	40.93	41.39		55031	82.62	66.61
2018	46.66	41.24	45.02	35 599	41.89	84.99		15 416	41.13	37.48		51015	83.02	61.45
2019	47.3	41.63	45.53	34 650	42.04	82.42		15 687	41.37	37.92		50337	83.41	60.35
2020	47.65	40.76	45.45	31 436	42.21	74.47		14 782	41.54	35.59		46218	83.75	55.19
β值	0.153	0.025	0.104	-	-	-0.243		-	-	-0.590		-	-	-0.344
t值	4.765	0.448	3.501	-	-	-21.901		-	-	-11.174		-	-	-21.360
P值	0.001	0.666	0.008	-	-	0.000		-	-	0.000		-	-	0.000